The 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, due to begin next week, is shaping up to be “extraordinary,” with four to seven Category 3 or higher hurricanes possible, according to forecasts from the U.S. Oceanic Administration and atmospheric (NOAA).
“This season promises to be extraordinary,” NOAA chief Rick Spinrad warned Thursday at a press conference. Taking into account all the largest storms, the agency had never predicted such a high number during its projections in May, he added.
These forecasts are notably linked to the expected development of the La Niña weather phenomenon in the near future, as well as to very high temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, NOAA said.
In total, between 17 and 25 named storms could develop (with winds of more than 63 km/h), according to NOAA. Among them, between eight and thirteen could become hurricanes (more than 119 km/h), including between four and seven of category 3 or more (from 178 km/h).
These forecasts “are a reason to be concerned, obviously, but not to be alarmed,” said Ken Graham, director of the US Weather Service (NWS), inviting Americans to prepare in advance for the arrival potential of a storm.
The North Atlantic hurricane season runs from early June to late November.
These hurricanes can be devastating both materially and in terms of danger to human lives, particularly in the southern United States.
In 2022, the hurricane Ian had notably devastated Florida, causing dozens of victims and had alone caused more than 100 billion dollars in damage.
Anticipate
In general, with global warming, hurricanes are becoming more powerful, fueled by warmer ocean surfaces, scientists say.
“The joyous season of summer is increasingly becoming a time of fear for the danger to come,” commented Astrid Caldas, a scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) organization. “Reducing” greenhouse gas emissions is “essential,” she added.
Experts have been warning of the accumulation of exceptional heat in the Atlantic Ocean for months, also very harmful for corals.
The La Niña meteorological phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean but has consequences for the entire planet. It generally has the effect of fueling a more intense hurricane season in the Atlantic.
La Niña has a 77% chance of forming between August and October, Rick Spinrad said.
The opposite phenomenon, El Niño, was present last year and it tended to moderate hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.
“Before hurricane season officially begins, my message to Americans is: Take time to think about your own risks,” said Erik Hooks, deputy administrator for the federal agency responsible for disaster response. natural resources (FEMA).
“Do you have any medications that need to be kept cold?” Medical devices that require electricity? Mobility problems that would make an evacuation more complex? » he listed. “Now is the time to ask yourself these questions, understand the risks, and put a plan in place. »