If the resurgence of Covid-19 contaminations affecting Central and Eastern Europe arrives in the west of the continent, “a segment of the population in France risks paying a very heavy price,” warned Antoine Flahault on Thursday .
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The new wave of Covid-19 contamination currently affecting Central and Eastern Europe “is happening” on the west of the continent, said Thursday, November 4 on franceinfo Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva. The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed alarm at the rate “very worrying” of transmissions and called Europe the “epicenter” of the pandemic.
franceinfo: Were we waiting for this epidemic rebound in Europe or are we surprised?
Antoine Flahault: We have always been surprised by this pandemic, practically with every wave. We know that we cannot predict it in the medium or long term. However, it has been known for several weeks that Central and Eastern Europe were experiencing a very impressive wave, the biggest wave in the history of their pandemic. With this Delta variant, it is not just new infections but also a wave of hospitalizations and deaths, because these populations are much less well vaccinated than those in Western Europe. Now the wave is coming to Western Europe. Germany is now experiencing the biggest wave it has ever seen in terms of contamination but not in terms of hospitalizations or deaths.
Is it thanks to vaccination, even if we know that it does not prevent transmission?
Vaccination does not completely prevent transmission, but it does reduce them anyway, perhaps by 30% or 50%. On the other hand, it is very effective against the serious complications of the disease. The UK had between 40 and 50,000 infections per day in recent weeks. However, there is ten times less mortality than in January, when the population was not yet vaccinated. Unfortunately, there is a segment of the population – in France it is about 10% of the over 50s – which is still not vaccinated. It risks paying a very heavy price for this winter pandemic wave, if it really happens in France.
What solutions should be adopted in the face of this rebound in the epidemic among our neighbors?
We have learned a lot about this pandemic and the virus. There are three essential elements. Two of them are fairly well practiced: vaccination and the use of the mask indoors. The third measure, namely the ventilation of confined spaces, is very neglected in all the countries of Europe, not just in France. Public policies have not invested in good quality air, which considerably reduces the risk of transmission of this virus.