the National Rally list achieves a historic score with 31.5% of the votes, according to our Ipsos estimate

The list led by Jordan Bardella comes first in the European elections on Sunday and is ahead of that of the Macronist camp by 16 points. Marine Le Pen’s party thus succeeds in its challenge of inflicting a setback on the majority.

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Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, May 24, 2024, during a meeting in Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais).  (FRANCOIS LO PRESTI / AFP)

A historic result. Marine Le Pen’s party recorded its best score in the European elections on Sunday June 9, with 31.5% voices, according to an Ipsos estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI, Public Senate and LCP National Assembly. He is well ahead of the presidential majority represented by Valérie Hayer (15.2%) and the PS-Place Publique list led by Raphaël Glucksmann (14%).

The National Rally (RN), which already held 18 seats in the European Parliament, should be able to send between 29 and 31 MEPs to Strasbourg.

How did the party react after the results?

After the announcement of the first estimates, Jordan Bardella welcomed his results, with “humility”, “gravity” And “spirit of very high responsibility”. As he had insisted during the campaign, the president of the far-right party relied on his good results to ask the head of state to dissolve the National Assembly and “to organize new elections” : “The unprecedented gap (…) reflects this evening a scathing disavowal and a clear rejection of the policy led by Emmanuel Macron and his government. The President of the Republic cannot remain deaf to the message sent this evening by the French.”

“The French this evening voted for the recovery of our migration policy, the return of State authority, the preservation of their purchasing power, the defense of our jobs, our industries and our farmers in the face of to unfair competition”he still estimated.

Who are the elected candidates and with which group will they sit?

The RN is doing better than in 2019, when its list, already led by Jordan Bardella, collected 23.34% of the votes cast and obtained 23 seats out of the 79 French ones. Since February, there were still 18, several elected officials having left the RN or the European Parliament.

In addition to Jordan Bardella, several personalities will sit under the colors of the RN in Strasbourg. The essayist Malika Sorel, the former boss of Frontex Fabrice Leggeri and the ex-police officer Matthieu Valet won their first mandate as MEP. Like the head of the list, several outgoing RN MEPs retain their seats, like Mathilde Androuët, Jean-Paul Garraud and Thierry Mariani.

Jordan Bardella and his list also exceeded the score achieved in the 2014 European elections, when Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front obtained 24.86% of the votes and 24 seats out of 74. The RN also achieved a better score than the 23 .15% of the votes cast in favor of Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential election, even if the performance should not be put on the same level, given the much lower participation during these European elections.

Who will the RN MEPs sit with? VSThis question has been the subject of negotiations for months. Until now, the elected representatives of the far-right party were part of the Identity and Democracy group. ButThe cards were reshuffled after the National Rally announced its decision to no longer sit with Germany’s far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). The RN therefore needs other allies.

In the home stretch of the campaign, Marine Le Pen renewed her wish to get closer to Fratelli d’Italia. The party of the head of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, is a member of the group European conservatives and reformists. “Now is the time to join us, it would be really useful. If we succeed, we can become the second group in the European Parliament”she declared to the Italian press during a trip to Pas-de-Calais on May 25.

How did the RN campaign go?

Given favorite of the ballot for months, LThe RN was credited with more than 30% of voting intentions in the latest opinion surveys published before the election. The party nationalized this election by banking on the rejection of Emmanuel Macron’s policies. During his last campaign meeting, on June 2 in Paris, Jordan Bardella thus called for “inflict the heaviest defeat on Emmanuel Macron”. The head of the RN list also wanted make this election “a referendum for or against immigration”.

Criticized for his absence from several debates at the start of the campaign, the president of the National Rally then participated in several broadcasts with the other candidates from the main lists. Jordan Bardella also debated with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on May 23 on France 2.

What are the consequences for the RN?

Building on its victory on Sunday, the far-right party remains focused on its main objective: the presidential election of 2027. Before then, the National Rally has an appointment with the municipal elections in 2026, during which the RN will have to strengthen its roots territorial while he only leads around fifteen cities after results considered disappointing in 2020. Jordan Bardella’s party thus intends to continue to embody the primary force of opposition to Emmanuel Macron’s policies.

Before these electoral deadlines, the former president of the party, Marine Le Pen, will be judged from September 30, 2024 during the trial of the FN parliamentary assistants in the European Parliament. The president of the RN group in the Assembly and several other people are accused of having employed with European funds, between 2004 and 2016, collaborators who actually worked for the National Front.


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