the National Rally at the top of voting intentions ahead of the left, the presidential camp left behind according to our survey

The presidential majority comes in third position in voting intentions, in a poll published on Saturday, eight days before the first round of the legislative elections.

franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. A poll is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also known as a “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error.

Eight days before the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally (RN) and its allies from the Republican wing (LR) of Eric Ciotti arrive at the top of voting intentions, credited with 35.5% (31.5% for the RN and 4% for the LR supported by the RN), ahead of the left alliance gathered under the banner of the New Popular Front which stands at 29.5%, while the presidential camp (Together) reaches 19.5% , according to an Ipsos survey for Radio France and The Parisian published Saturday June 22.

Far behind the leading trio, the “dissident” LR candidates, opposed to the alliance with the RN, are given 7% of voting intentions. As for the Reconquest party, it barely received 2% of voting intentions, just ahead of the far-left candidates (Lutte Ouvrière, etc.).

Participation in the first round is estimated at 62%, a very clear increase compared to 47.5% in 2022. For three quarters of them, their choice is final (74%). 88% of RN voters are sure of their choice, slightly above voters of the New Popular Front (81%) and higher than that of the presidential camp (73%). On the other hand, among Republican voters, it is almost the status quo: 52% are sure of their choice, while 48% assure that their vote can still change.

If we look at the transfer of votes between the European elections and the vote of June 30 and July 7, 72% of Raphaël Glucksmann’s voters declare that they will vote for the New Popular Front and 20% choose to vote for a candidate from the presidential camp. 93% of voters on the list led by Manon Aubry (LFI) in the European elections chose the left alliance in the legislative elections.

On the right, among those polled who voted for the head of the list François-Xavier Bellamy in the European elections, 55% will vote for an LR candidate from the historic branch, opposed to the alliance with the RN, 29% choose to refer to a candidate Together (coalition of Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons, Radical Party, UDI), and only 11% decide to vote for a candidate from the flame party or a “ciottist” LR candidate.

Compared to the 2022 presidential election, a significant proportion of former Emmanuel Macron voters (16%) are choosing to turn to candidates from the left bloc. 55% of Emmanuel Macron voters maintain their confidence in a majority candidate. 11% of them cast their vote on an LR candidate, and 11% in favor of an RN candidate. As for Valérie Pécresse’s voters, the transfer of their vote crystallizes into three blocks: 39% of them support an LR candidate labeled “historical channel”, 27% choose an RN candidate and Republican-leaning Éric Ciotti, and finally 23 % choose to vote for a candidate favorable to the duo Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal.

Finally, 58% of respondents disapprove of the alliance between the new left-wing parties. 96% of those close to La France insoumise approve of it. The approval rate drops to 81% for those claiming to be close to the Socialist Party (PS), 80% among the Ecologists, the same thing for the French Communist Party (PCF). The survey also reveals a fragmentation into three blocks when it comes to coalition and alliance wishes for the Republicans. Among all those questioned, 33% want LR to form an alliance with the National Rally and its allies and 30% are in favor of an alliance with Ensemble. 37% are for “neutrality” of the right-wing party.

Survey carried out by Ipsos for Radio France and Le Parisien from June 19 to 20 on a representative sample of 2,000 people, constituting a national sample representative of the French population, registered on electoral lists, aged 18 and over. Sample surveyed online via Ipsos Access Panel Online. Quota method: sex, age, profession of the person interviewed, category of urban area, region. The margins of error are between 0.6 and 2.6 points.