the name of the future Prime Minister depends above all on the choice of the military

128 million Pakistani voters are called to choose a new Prime Minister on Thursday. In this country, it is impossible to govern without generals, an asset that Imran Khan, the candidate of the Pakistan Movement for Justice, lacks.

Four candidates animated the campaign for the Pakistani legislative elections which will take place on Thursday February 8. First of all, the two Sharif brothers are candidates. The elder Nawaz and his younger Shehbaz, current head of government. Then Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of the former Prime Minister assassinated in 2007, is also a candidate. The fourth is Imran Khan, considered Pakistan’s most popular politician, but who lacks a key asset: the army.

During this campaign, it seemed quite clear that Imran Khan, the former cricket star and founder of the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was not welcome. A court even banned the media from mentioning his name in early December. Imran Khan has been in detention since August and has just received two additional sentences: 14 years for corruption and 10 years for disclosing a classified document. This is the continuation of the political crisis of 2022, when Imran Khan was dismissed from his post as Prime Minister, after a violent disagreement with the army concerning the appointment of the new head of Pakistani intelligence.

Soldiers accused of invalidating 90% of PTI candidacies

In 2022, the military had lost some feathers because of a classified document that Imran Khan had made public. This diplomatic note proved the behind-the-scenes involvement of the generals and the American government to shorten his mandate. One maneuver too many for the Pakistani population. This revelation forced the then Chief of Army Staff, Qamar Bajwa, to take responsibility for the army’s role in the country’s political instability. “The main reason is the army’s interference in political affairs for 70 years. This is why, after great consultation, the army decided that it would no longer intervene in political matters. I assure you that this is a firm decision and we will stick to it”he declared in November 2022. A radical decision that everyone believed in at the time.

Imran Khan, from his prison, does not give up and continues to attack the military. He accuses them of arbitrary arrests of his supporters and of having invalidated 90% of the PTI’s candidacies for these legislative elections. But other issues also push the army to want to keep control. Pakistan is affected by the economic crisis, the country has also requested help from the IMF to stay afloat. The military is directly concerned because they are located at all levels of the country’s economy. Likewise, they reign over the domain of foreign affairs, a strategic position to develop their relations with China. The Pakistani army does not intend to give up its comfort, nor its habits: those of controlling the country with, at its side, a docile Prime Minister.