In the eyes of Stephen Bronfman and his partners, relaunching baseball in Montreal would be a great project for the people. Not just for those – and I am one of them – who love baseball.
It would also be, they say, great for the economy! They sell a myth that few economists take seriously: that of the famous economic fallout, the sports version of the multiplication of loaves.
I hope the CAQ government will be skeptical.
For the moment, he does not close the door, and that is defending itself. After all, the project has not yet been officially filed. Quebec is waiting to read it before commenting on it. But its criteria leave room for thought.
The Caquists would agree to inject public funds into the adventure on condition that the taxpayers benefit from it. That is, on condition that the aid is less than the economic benefits. The problem is that it is difficult to assess the impact. And that they are often overestimated. The devil is hiding in commas and decimals.
Contrary to what its promoters trumpet, it is not obvious that the Montreal Grand Prix is a windfall for the tax authorities. According to my colleague Vincent Brousseau-Pouliot, this event would have cost our governments 22.4 million from 2015 to 2019.
Professional sport is no better. An economist from George Mason University concluded in 2015 that these teams did not generate substantial economic benefits. His study cast a wide net: he looked at the years 1969 to 2011.
The Legault government has not yet determined its methodology or who would do the math. However, he advanced his general criteria. It would account for the spinoffs such as the tax inflows generated by the tax on the salaries of the players as well as the taxes paid by tourists who come to see a baseball game. Now, how do you know if a tourist has come for baseball, and if they would have chosen another destination if the Expos weren’t playing? And how can we predict the taxes that players will pay with us?
As a general rule, professional athletes who play on a professional team in Quebec pay tax there on the portion of their salary earned here. But it will not be easy to calculate them precisely to establish what would be a “profitable” subsidy.
And even if it did, one question remains: will the team come? Because the owners of the circuit and the players’ association must agree to the transaction. And it is not because the team would return to Montreal that it would stay there …
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We should take a few kilometers back. Come back to the basic question, which concerns the City of Montreal and not the Government of Quebec: how to develop the Peel Basin? What is the best project for the population? Is a baseball stadium used a few weeks a year?
It is up to Mayor Plante to answer.
I don’t blame him for his silence. I repeat: the project has not yet been submitted. It is normal that she read it before commenting on it. But we can already recall certain facts. The city lacks affordable housing and green space. She suffers from traffic congestion. And the Peel Basin is a great ground for creating new residential and commercial projects.
Moreover, several have already been developed. The most recent came from Devimco. With residences and a hub of green technologies. Mr. Bronfman and his team of investors have joined forces with Devimco to integrate part of this project into their plan. But it could be reborn in its initial version. Or be replaced by another.
Mme Plante has already been firm on the principle: no financial aid will be allocated to promoters. Neither direct nor indirect.
Once the project is submitted, it is very likely that it will be studied by the Office de consultation publique de Montréal. It is highly relevant to scrutinize the terms of a subsidy or a “forgivable” loan made by Quebec to promoters.
Before that, however, we will have to go back to basics and ask ourselves if a stadium used part-time for a hypothetical professional team in shared custody is the best project for the future of Montreal.
Mr. Bronfman is a financial professional. But when it comes to urban planning and inclusive development, he is not an expert, far from it.