The movement against the Iranian regime continues

(Paris) The death of Mahsa Amini a month ago in Iran set off a chain reaction, confronting the Iranian authorities with one of their greatest challenges since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and whose outcome remains uncertain.

The spark was the arrest on September 13 of this 22-year-old Iranian Kurd in Tehran, accused by the morality police of having violated the dress code of the Islamic Republic, in particular providing for the wearing of the veil for women.

Taken to the Vozara detention center, the girl died on September 16 in hospital. Authorities say her death was related to a brain condition, but the family says she died from a fatal blow to the head.

Since then, scores of young women have spearheaded protests, shouting anti-government slogans, stripping and burning their headscarves, and standing up to security forces in the streets.

A month later, the protest movement that began in Iranian Kurdistan, Mahsa Amini’s native province, has spread across the country, reaching schools, universities and even oil refineries. Evin prison in Tehran, where political prisoners and foreigners are held, was also the scene of clashes on Saturday evening.

This movement, which breaks the taboo of the grip exerted on women by the morality police, does not seem about to die out, despite violent repression, mass arrests and Internet shutdowns.

But “to achieve positive change” it must become more structured, says Cornelius Adebahr, analyst for Carnegie Europe, stressing that it takes “much more than demonstrations and sanctions” to overthrow the regime.

“Real change”

In an Iran hit by US sanctions, in the grip of a serious economic crisis, protests have already rocked the country in recent years, such as in 2009 after the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or in 2019 due to a sharp rise in prices Energy.

But none of these movements had threatened the foundations of the Islamic Republic so much, underlines Shadi Sadr, director of Justice for Iran, a non-governmental organization based in the United Kingdom.

The current protests are “much larger” than in 2019 when protesters were mainly from disadvantaged backgrounds, she says.

“The uprising started in response to restrictions on women […]but evolved into a campaign to overthrow the regime,” notes the US-based Soufan Center, in a study.

Anti-regime slogans such as “death to the dictator” had never been chanted so much before. Images of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were torn up, and those of General Qassem Soleimani, killed by a US strike in Iraq in January 2020, burned.

Videos showed protesters resisting security forces, torching police cars or even setting up roadblocks.

The uprising has relegated the traditional political struggles in the country between reformists and conservatives to the background and captured international attention, focused for several months on discussions surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.

“Protesters have changed the mainstream narrative by calling for real change. They are saying no to the whole political regime,” said Shadi Sadr.

Hardly “encouraging” precedents

However, the human toll is heavy: the repression of the demonstrations has killed at least 108 people since September 16, according to the Oslo-based NGO Iran Human Rights.

According to Amnesty International, the demonstrations are “brutally repressed” by the security forces who opened fire with live ammunition, firing lead pellets at the protesters at point-blank range.

Authorities have also made a growing number of arrests, targeting journalists, activists and artists in particular.

After the Arab Springs, few popular uprisings succeeded in overthrowing authoritarian regimes.

In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad was able to turn the tide of the war with the help of his allies, Russia, Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Triggered in 2011 by the repression of pro-democracy demonstrations, the war left more than 500,000 dead and forced millions to flee.

His Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko is also still in power, having brutally suppressed historic protests in 2020.

“Over the past 10 years, attempts to overthrow dictatorial regimes around the world have not been particularly encouraging,” commented Cornelius Adebahr.

“And in Iran, the power seems determined not to yield a single inch in the face of the protest movement precisely because of the anti-regime slogans chanted during the demonstrations,” he said.