“The most reasonable attitude is not to go party, it is to stay at home, waiting for better days to come soon”, said Thursday, December 30 on franceinfo Mahmoud Zureik, professor in epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and director of Epi-Phare.
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Facing “tsunami“Covid-19 contaminations sweeping over France, the specialist warned the French who would be tempted to go party anyway for New Year’s Eve. In a restaurant of a hundred people in Paris “the probability of being with a positive person with the current rate is more than 90%”, he warned.
franceinfo: Masks outside in Paris from Friday, is it a useful measure?
Pr Zureik: ATWith the very increased contagiousness of the Omicron variant, there may indeed be contaminations outside, especially in the city center, where there is a very high population density. In addition, we often go shopping nowadays, so the measurement is a little bit useful. It should be kept in mind, however, that the vast majority of contamination takes place behind closed doors and indoors. So this is a complementary measure.
Tomorrow is New Year’s Eve. Is it safe to party?
With the current incidence rate, with the number of cases, 208,000 cases yesterday, 180,000 the day before yesterday, I think the most reasonable attitude is not to go party and stay at home in waiting for better days to come soon. But if you want to party, you just have to be aware of the risk to take the necessary precautions. If you party in a restaurant of a hundred people in Paris, the probability of meeting a positive person, with the current rate, is more than 90%. The probability of ending up with two positive people in a gathering of 100 people in Paris is 70%. Spending hours in the environment of these people in closed places, often poorly ventilated, will only considerably increase the risk of being contaminated.
If we get tested before the evening, that does not reduce the risk of contamination?
The tests clearly reduce the risks. PCR tests in the laboratory, antigenic tests in pharmacies and self-tests which are dispensed in pharmacies and, more recently, in supermarkets. So, ideally, we do the tests, especially antigenic PCR, but the current maximum capacity in France for antigenic PCR tests is two million per day. The demand for the holidays is likely to greatly exceed this capacity. In this case, it is better to leave the antigenic PCR tests to symptomatic people, to people with contact cases and to move on to other tests despite their lack of sensitivity.
When we are negative, we are not sure that we are negative. But if everyone tests themselves and everyone is negative, the risk is greatly reduced without eliminating it. The US federal agency, the equivalent of the National Drug Safety Agency, has mentioned a lack of sensitivity for antigen testing with the Omicron. You can be negative despite having a virus. When you’re negative, you have to behave like it’s a risk reduction, but not a 100% reliable diagnosis.
Is partying between positive cases a good idea?
This is not a good idea for four reasons. When you are positive, you have to isolate yourself so as not to infect others. Before meeting up, you have to take public transport, you may have to go shopping, so there is a risk of infecting others. Second, there can be multiple variants. The Delta variant that’s still there, the Omicron variant that’s still there. We do not know if we are at risk of being infected with both variants. It’s a risk. The third is the viral load. Finally the fourth reason: if we dance, if we shout while being positive, if we drink alcohol, we risk precipitating symptoms and aggravating existing symptoms.