The modest triumph of Emmanuel Macron

With nearly 59% of the votes on 2^and turn of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron could have triumphed. After all, here is a better score than those of François Mitterrand or even General de Gaulle when he found himself in a second round.

But, at the foot of the Eiffel Tower, on Sunday, we rather saw a Macron who seemed to have understood how much his victory was due as much to particular circumstances as to the appreciation of his first term as president.

He acknowledged that many voters had chosen him not by membership, but to block the National Rally and the far right. And that the very high rate of abstentions, 28%, meant a “refusal to choose which we will have to respond to”.

No wonder he promised that his second term “will not be a continuation of the one that is ending” and that he will carry out a “refoundation” of his methods there.

It is true that the campaign has shown that there are deep divisions in France which Macron’s first term has tended to exacerbate rather than calm. The yellow vests crisis was the most eloquent example, but it was not the only one.

In fact, many French people have the impression that they have more and more difficulty making ends meet and that their government and their president had little time for their daily problems and spent more time on major issues. diplomatic and far from the field and the citizens.

Macron has to change, and his very brief victory speech on Sunday seemed to show he knows it and will.

But the re-election of Mr. Macron also brings major upheavals in French politics. The traditional parties of right and left are practically crushed.

The largest political formation – on the right as on the left – rejects the current system: both the National Rally and La France insoumise want much greater changes than those brought by the simple alternation between the parties of the right or the left. This too says a lot about the fractures in French society.

But once all that has been said, Mr Macron is in a pretty good position for the legislative elections which will take place on June 12 and 19. The “third round” as we say in France.

The two-round system in legislative elections should allow Mr. Macron’s party, La République en Marche, to retain a majority in the National Assembly, even if it will not be the sweep that took place five years ago.

On the right, it is clear that a real civil war is about to start. Despite a record score for the far right – 41.2% – Marine Le Pen’s leadership will be challenged.

Candidate Éric Zemmour quickly declared that “those who love France have been defeated for too long. Alas! This is the eighth time defeat has hit Le Pen’s name,” counting the defeats of Marine and her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

With 7% of the vote in the first round, Mr. Zemmour, in barely veiled terms, says that Marine Le Pen cannot win and offers to replace her as leader of the far right. Despite his disappointment, M’s speech^me Le Pen clearly indicated that she does not intend to leave him the place.

This far-right infighting, whatever the outcome, can only help Mr. Macron, and he knows it all too well.

The difficulties of the left are of another order, but could arrive at the same result.

The Socialist Party obtained the worst result in its history – 1.7% of the vote, two weeks ago. The Communist Party will have done little better. These two historical parties of the left have every chance of not having enough deputies – the bar is at 25 – to form a recognized parliamentary group.

France therefore finds itself with three major political blocs. The extreme right, the radical left and the center entirely occupied by the newly re-elected president. And if this presidential election has shown anything, it’s that France rejects extremes and prefers to be governed from the center.

This center will be less comfortable than it seems. Mr Macron cannot take anything for granted, as he won because his compatriots did not vote for him with much enthusiasm. Instead, they voted for the “least worst”.

Under the circumstances, the “third round” could well be that of all dangers for Mr. Macron. He will have little time to show that he has learned the lessons of the presidential election and that he intends to govern differently.

Which, in any country, is always easier said than done.