The death of Brian Mulroney will not only pay tribute to a great prime minister who helped shape the Canadian nation. It will also have made it possible to measure the gulf which today separates the Conservative Party (PC) from the defunct party of the former Prime Minister, the Progressive Conservative Party.
We will also remember that, if Mulroney managed to achieve one of the greatest political victories in Canadian history in 1984, it was mainly through his ability to attract the vote of Quebec nationalists, to whom he had promised to reintegrate Quebec into the Canadian Constitution with honor and enthusiasm. In a country today frozen by Meech’s failure, it seems that this feat is now impossible to repeat. Even in these times of extreme unpopularity of the federal Liberal Party.
Of course, the current leader of the PC, Pierre Poilievre, will want to take up this challenge, even if the Quebec political scene has transformed since 1984. For example, in a Canada which has fewer and fewer French speakers (22% today compared to 26% 40 years ago), the concept of the two founding peoples no longer seems to be popular. And the gravitational forces of the Canadian nation revolve more and more around the central government, which, we see every day, encroaches more on the areas of jurisdiction of the provinces. To put it bluntly, the Canada of 2024 looks less and less like a federation.
In recent years, more recent phenomena have been added, but even more harmful for Quebec and its culture: the omnipresence of social networks and, above all, the Canadian migratory delirium. Faced with the headwinds sweeping over it, Quebec nationalism is now on alert, and its defenders know that a few reforms will not be enough to escape demographic drowning. This factor risks being decisive during the next federal election campaign here in Quebec. And of course, Pierre Poilievre will face a rival that did not exist forty years ago: the Bloc Québécois. Under these conditions, how could he rally nationalists to his cause?
We already know the main arguments that the Conservatives will brandish during the next election campaign: respect for the jurisdictions of the provinces which is in their DNA and perhaps also an “ideological realignment”, mainly regarding multiculturalism and the concept of EDI (equity, diversity, inclusion), the soul of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC), from which he will certainly want to distance himself. But while knowing that the PC will never seek to launch new health programs as the Liberals are doing, encouraged by the agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), what can the PC propose to curb the decline of French and Quebec culture?
We already know that he will probably not tackle any of the two main pitfalls that threaten culture, namely immigration and social networks. The PC only reacted very late to the problems caused by galloping immigration during the Trudeau years and promised to tackle the question of housing by targeting supply and not demand. Although he does not intend to interfere in the affairs of the provinces, Pierre Poilievre nonetheless threatened in covert terms the mayors of the two largest cities in Quebec who, according to him, are partly responsible for the housing crisis. A defamation that is matched only by that spread by Jagmeet Singh on the “disinvestment” of the health system in Quebec…
As for social media, remember that, for months, the Conservatives delayed the adoption of Bill C-18 aimed at forcing minimal investment from Facebook and Google in Canadian media. What the Conservative vision of immigration issues and social networks illustrates is in reality the immense hole in the Conservatives’ political proposal with regard to Quebec. As in matters of the environment, where conservative deniers are numerous, cultural questions, also of an identity nature, generally deserve only indifference from the PC.
In reality, the PC is perfectly aligned with the concerns of the rest of canada (ROC), for which the threat posed by social networks simply does not exist as it is a given that the average Canadian has already long been a natural customer of the American cultural empire.
This gap between a PC still well anchored in the ROC, particularly in the West, and Quebec grows even more when we examine the positions put forward by Pierre Poilievre on other identity issues. Thus, unlike his predecessors who did not want to get involved, the Conservative leader said he was clearly opposed to Bill 21.
Furthermore, should we recall the positioning of the conservative leader during the demonstrations in the federal capital two years ago? Sympathetic to the demonstrators from whom emanated a political vision inspired by American Republicans and the MAGA movement (Make America Great Again), Poilievre defended values light years away from Quebec values. Finally, as we still celebrate the end of the obligatory oath to Her Majesty of the United Kingdom to sit in the National Assembly, it should be remembered that Poilievre is a fervent admirer of British royalty…
The Conservatives seem to have a long way to go to achieve what certain polls are predicting (prematurely?), namely gains over their Quebec competitors in the next elections. Their only real asset, but it is significant, seems to be the great weariness towards the liberals. Liberal attrition, combined with Quebecers’ propensity to demonstrate political amnesia, could result in a few more ridings for the Tories.
But there will certainly be no “Poilievre mania”. Before voting for the PC, Quebec voters will remember that not so long ago, their leader praised the merits of cryptocurrency, wanted to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada and close Radio-Canada.