(Paris) Russian drones against Kyiv, drones attacking Moscow, drones buzzing by the hundreds above the front… the drone war, the use of which has exploded in Ukraine, has many facets, tactical, psychological and financial .
Here are some salient aspects, in the case of a front line that is almost frozen as it is today.
The MALE offside
The Turkish MALE (medium altitude, long endurance) drone Bayraktar TB2 was one of the heroes of the Ukrainian resistance at the start of the invasion.
“He has taken an important place in the strategic communication of the Ukrainian forces. Presented as a central element during several feats of arms such as the stopping of Russian columns from Belarus or the destruction of the cruiser Moskva, the TB2 has become one of the symbols of the early days of the conflict”, summarizes the French researcher Léo Péria-Peigné from Ifri.
But if they are praised in songs, the Bayraktar have not given voice for months. “A fluid front is conducive to engaging MALE drones, which have inflicted a lot of casualties. But the front then froze and became tight as the Russians deployed their anti-aircraft systems, explains on condition of anonymity a European source from the defense industry. Having become vulnerable, “they don’t fly so much anymore”.
Expendable in depth
Moscow regularly rains Iranian Shahed suicide drones on the Ukrainian rear. Kyiv also sends similar devices deep into Russia, in the Crimea or in the Belgorod region. Even against Moscow, as the Russian government accused again on Tuesday.
Ukrainian forces “use long-range suicide drones, sometimes commercially purchased Chinese propeller models, or former Soviet jet-powered reconnaissance drones: Tu-141s. These are equipped with explosive charges, and can reach targets well inside Russian territory, ”explains the industrial source.
Much cheaper than missiles, which are often intercepted, they are used by both sides to “serve as a decoy, to force the defenses to fire their missiles to exhaust them. And permanently create terror, uncertainty. In the long term, all of this has virtues, ”summarizes a senior French officer.
As Russian industry can only supply “about 40 long-range missiles every month”, Moscow launches a large number of drones “to increase the number of threat axes, using Shahed-136 drones as scouts to identify holes in the Ukrainian defence”, analyze Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, of the British center RUSI.
Norias on the trenches
It is closer to the front that most drones are used, for reconnaissance, target identification or attacks, via small, doctored commercial drones dropping bombs on Russian soldiers in their shelters.
“It is common to count between 25 and 50 drones from both sides operating in the disputed area between the two front lines in 10 kilometer increments,” according to RUSI experts.
The range used ranges from tactical drones like the Ukrainian Furia, with a range of about fifty kilometres, or like the Russian Eleron-3, to small commercial quadricopters purchased by public subscription and tampered with, with a range of less than 10 kilometers.
Faced with these swarms, each camp has deployed defences, in particular electronic ones, to jam sometimes very low-cost devices that it is neither possible nor desirable to shoot down with very expensive missiles.
“Soldiers are very exposed” to small tampered quadcopters, and “the only way to fight is jamming”, explains the industrial source.
“The Russian military employs about one major electronic warfare system for every 10 kilometers of the front, usually about 7 kilometers behind the line, and more specialized capabilities at a higher echelon,” according to the Rusi.
“It’s huge, the Russians have moved upmarket on electronic warfare,” comments the French officer. “You can’t wage drone warfare without having robust electronic warfare.”
“You cannot separate electronic warfare and the drone,” he insists. “It’s a new type of combined arms combat, like we have infantry ‘cavalry’ artillery, we have drone ‘electronic warfare’ connectivity”
In addition, the RUSI authors point out, the Russians have massively deployed lighter means, “anti-drone capabilities are assigned to each section, which generally include directional jammers”.
“The antidrone rifle is the zero degree of defense. What works are the fixed jammers, installed near the front area, but they are spottable and have a very limited life expectancy, because they get shot at, they are big spheres on tripods with generators” , explains the industrial source.
In the end, the losses of drones are very high, “it is considered that each drone does not fly more than 4 to 6 times before being shot down”, according to the soldier.
Ukrainians send the message that they are losing 10,000 a month. An unverifiable figure that can be part of a communication strategy vis-à-vis Western supporters of Kyiv.
What if the forehead moves?
If the front becomes fluid again with major troop movements, breakthroughs, offensives and counter-offensives, drones will obviously be involved.
“When the dynamics of the battlefield change, drones will offer new capabilities to Ukrainians,” said Forbes Vikram Mittal, a professor at West Point.
“They can be modified to help overcome obstacles”, such as minefields for example, or ensure supplies of ammunition “or other equipment necessary for units to continue their operations”.
The Lancet drone, a Russian asset
The Lancet-3 Russian suicide drone has become a notable asset of the Russian army over the course of the conflict, in particular against certain guns supplied by the West, while having the advantage of being rustic and inexpensive.
“The small Russian Lancet drone is establishing itself as one of Moscow’s weapons of choice to deal with the influx of enemy equipment, in particular by performing “dronized counter-battery”. Typical solution to long-lasting conflicts,” analyzes French consultant Stéphane Audrand on Twitter.
Produced by the Zala Aero group, linked to the Kalashnikov consortium, this prowling ammunition consists of a fuselage of about 1.60 meters, equipped with four wings and a propeller at the rear. Loaded with explosives, it has distinguished itself for months by its effectiveness and seems for the moment impervious to the sanctions regimes put in place against Moscow.
“The images released by Russia show impacts on 23 radars or radar control centers, as well as 31 air defense systems. This is a significant figure, ”said a European defense industry source on condition of anonymity.
The Lancet puts Ukrainian artillery under pressure, in particular certain 155 mm guns supplied by the West, the Russians using this drone “as a form of counter-battery”, explains Indian analyst Girish Linganna in the publication Frontier India.
When one of these guns fires on the Ukrainian side, the Russian command targets it and “automatically assigns it to the nearest Lancet-3”, which can come and hit the gun if it has not changed location quickly enough, explains he.
Of a low cost, estimated between 20 and 40,000 dollars according to Mr. Linganna, “it has the advantage of being not very vulnerable to the opposing means of defense (for the moment)”, underlines Mr. Audrand.
To protect against it, “what works the most for the moment remains the use of the ‘fireball’: a group of soldiers who fire massively at it with small arms as the drone approaches, which can be particularly slow,” the industry source explains.
Its first version was used in Syria in 2019, then “a new, more successful version was observed in action in July 2022 and its launches have become daily since October”, according to this specialist.
“These drones are produced in large quantities, using easily accessible components, the purchase of which throughout the world is not subject to regulation,” he adds.
“Their manufacture does not seem to be hampered too much by the sanctions. If it is still a little early to say if it is thanks to stocks or if there is substitution, ”said Mr. Audrand.