If the forest burns mostly in the north, the effects of the 2023 fires will be felt across Canada. Falling gross domestic product, rising health costs: we are only just beginning to measure the impacts of this new climate catastrophe which is affecting several Canadian provinces. Is Canada ready to face the problem?
Looking to scare your readers?
We are not trying to scare anyone. To paraphrase climatologist Michael Mann, the effects of climate change are already terrifying, there is no need to add more.
You still talk about the declining GDP. Isn’t that overkill for a few forests burning to the north?
This information is taken from a recent analysis by the firm Oxford Economics, which estimates that the forest fires reduced Canadian GDP by 0.1 percentage point in the second quarter. Moreover, if forecasts of a record fire season materialize, GDP could lose between 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points in the third quarter. According to analysts at Oxford Economics, the economic impacts of this fire season could exceed those of the tragedy in Fort McMurray, which caused a decline in GDP of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2016. Figures that are not surprising not Julien Bourque, senior policy analyst at the Climate Institute of Canada. “These are data that are consistent with our assessments,” he said.
But how can forest fires affect our economy so badly?
Oxford Economics estimates that mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec will be the first businesses affected by temporary shutdowns of their operations since mid-May. We also learned on Wednesday that the Quebec government is releasing $50 million to help businesses affected by the forest fires. Aid intended to support loggers, sawmills, paper mills, outfitters, tourist businesses and local businesses.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY THE SPANISH MINISTRY OF ECOLOGICAL TRANSITION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Spanish firefighters who came to lend a hand to their Quebec colleagues, near the Boisvert River, in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, on June 24
These are exceptional fires, but you don’t see that every year. From there to predicting dark days for the Canadian economy…
Without falling into catastrophism, climate change will pose a real challenge for the Canadian economy. According to a report by the Climate Institute of Canada (CCI) released last September, by 2100, climate change could lead to annual losses of around $865 billion in the country, or six times government revenue. of Quebec in 2022-2023. The report titled Limiting the Damage – Reducing the Costs of Climate Impacts in Canada recommended that governments incorporate climate impacts and adaptation policies into their economic policies.
These are big numbers, but what are we concerned about?
Everyone ends up being affected by such significant revenue losses. Among other things, the ICC anticipates that by 2100, middle-income households could lose up to 19% of their income due to climate change. The federal government also estimates that the average annual losses from disasters caused by global warming will total $15.4 billion by 2030 in the country.
But hey, it’s not just the economy in life. My grandmother always said: as long as you are healthy, everything is fine!
Your grandmother was a wise person! But there is a catch: the health of Canadians may also suffer from climate change.
PHOTO GRAHAM HUGHES, THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Smog episode caused by forest fires on June 25 in Montreal
These are simple facts. For example, between June 4 and 8, fine particles from forest fires resulted in health costs of $1.28 billion in Ontario, according to calculations by the Climate Institute of Canada. Julien Bourque estimates that these costs are probably even higher in Quebec since the concentrations of fine particles were higher in the Belle Province.
And what is the government doing?
Ottawa released its national climate adaptation strategy last November, along with a $1.6 billion relief plan. An update to the plan was announced on June 27 after the federal government finished consulting the provinces and territories.
It’s a good thing, right?
“Canada recognizes that this is a national crisis and is taking the leadership [avec le dévoilement de cette stratégie] ”, advances Julien Bourque, specifying that the country is only catching up. “We were a bit behind the peloton. The United Kingdom, for example, has had such a strategy for several years. But the United States, for its part, is refining its strategy. According to Mr. Bourque, the federal government must now “get together to put this plan into action”. “Climate change now means a canceled soccer game in Montreal due to fires thousands of miles away. We got there. »