It was July 7, three short weeks after the second round of the legislative elections, marked by the loss of the absolute majority for Emmanuel Macron’s camp. Seated in a Parisian brasserie, this Horizons deputy knows that his mandate will perhaps not last the time of the five-year term. “I told my activists: ‘We don’t put the glue away'”, he half-jokes. And to add, more seriously: “The probability that it won’t last is greater than under other legislatures, of course, we never had this equation.”
A few weeks later, the threat of a breakup became even more real. It was, for the first time, brandished by Emmanuel Macron himself, during a dinner at the Elysee Palace with the leaders of the majority, on September 28, according to information collected by franceinfo. The President of the Republic mentioned this constitutional tool which could be used in the event of the failure of the government on the pension reform.
“Me, I don’t want the mess, if a motion of censure is voted, I dissolve in the following minute.”
Emmanuel Macronduring a dinner at the Elysée
The next day, it is up to the Minister of Labor to confirm the message from the Head of State. “If all the oppositions came together to adopt a motion of censure and bring down the government, [le président de la République] would defer to the French and the French would decide and say what is the new majority they want”said Olivier Dussopt on LCI.
Within the majority, many play down the importance of the presidential threat. Both in form and in substance. “To say that there is dissolution if the government is overthrown by a motion of censure is obviously banal”, loose a close friend of the head of state. “These are comments from a dinner party, he didn’t tweet or do a press conference either”, notes Charles Sitzenstuhl, MP for Bas-Rhin. And the parliamentarians assure it: the dissolution is not their concern at the moment.
“Nobody in the majority is thinking that the dissolution will happen soon. Otherwise we would not try to negotiate with the opposition.”
Ludovic Mendès, MP for Moselleat franceinfo
“Yes, I’m making appointments for three months from now”smiles Eric Bothorel, his colleague from Côtes-d’Armor.
Nevertheless: the specter of dissolution agitates the spirits. “I repeated to my activists: you have to stay in a state of mind where the campaign can restart”, slips the deputy Horizons crossed in July. But the prospect of resuming his baton as a candidate after a very busy election year does not excite anyone. “Going back to the election, with all the stress it brings and the risk of being beaten…”sighs a MoDem MP. “We try not to think about itsays a Renaissance colleague. If you think about it, we’re going to come out broken into 1,000 pieces.”
Failing to think about it, the deputies of the majority try to interpret the words of Emmanuel Macron: who were they intended for? “Chick”, reacted Marine Le Pen. “When you want: the Nupes is ready to defeat you!” launched the rebellious Mathilde Panot. For a Renaissance executive, the presidential threat was aimed above all at “remind the PS, LR and all the republican arc that they have responsibilities”.
But for others, the orchestrated leak of Emmanuel Macron’s remarks is for everyone. including the majority. “It’s a bit of a crisis of authority from the president, it infantilizes us a bit. The message is: ‘If you are not wise, we will dissolve you'”, assures a Renaissance deputy. “The idea is that it is in your interest to be present, on each amendment”, supports another member of the majority.
Which makes some say that the gift of ubiquity is now an integral part of the deputy’s panoply. Being in the field, in riding, “in permanent campaign”, as Emmanuel Macron had himself requested at the beginning of July, and not miss any vote in committee and in the hemicycle. Because with a simple relative majority, every vote counts.
“We are a bit schizophrenic with our agendas, we try to multiply.”
Ludovic Mendès, MP for Moselleat franceinfo
“For now, it’s holding up”continues the elected Moselle, while the public sessions have just resumed. “You have to be in the Assembly but not be in a position where the voters tell you: ‘You have forgotten us, let go'”, observes a Horizons deputy. In case of dissolution, everything will have to be ready to start again and quickly.
Within Renaissance, the teams of the elections division have also taken stock of the June legislative elections and the candidates invested. Apart from about twenty potential changes, the presidential party would be able to start campaigning again quickly, if necessary, according to an internal source. However, no one is betting on an imminent dissolution. “I do not believe it”assures Aurore Bergé, the president of the Renaissance group.
“I do not believe in the adoption of a motion of censure of the oppositions. Nobody wants to go back to the campaign.”
Aurore Bergé, president of the Renaissance groupat franceinfo
In opposition, Les Républicains are the least likely to vote for a motion of censure, the party having no interest in putting back into play the sixty seats saved despite the catastrophic score of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election. “The president says to LR: if we go back to the elections, you are dead”, decrypts a framework of Horizons. The vote of a motion of censure does not seem to be on the agenda of the right-wing party. “We are responsible in principle. It is out of the question to add bazaar to the bazaar”said MP Julien Dive on LCP.
But will Nicolas Sarkozy’s former party go so far as to vote for Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform? “Pécresse said that Macron had copied his program, well they stick to it”launches Eric Bothorel. “It’s LR who has part of the key, supports Charles Sitzenstuhl. If they don’t vote for the pension reform, they have lost all ideological backbone.” But others do not have many illusions: “The LRs will never vote for pension reform, they will always find a pretext.”
Before a possible dissolution, it is another prerogative of the executive – 49.3 – which will agitate the debates in the coming days. The government could use it to force through as soon as the budget review begins this Monday in the National Assembly.