“The challenge is to mobilize our electorate by saying that the RN is well ahead and that we must go there, if you are against the RN. We are not doing embellishments.” Thus a ministerial advisor summarizes, in broad strokes, the strategy of the presidential camp for the European elections. Three months before the election, the signals are red for the Macronists. “The spirit of defeat” roams, sighs a Renaissance parliamentarian. For months, the dynamic in favor of Jordan Bardella, the head of the National Rally list, has been confirmed. The latest poll to date even suggests that his lead is widening: 31% of French people questioned declared their intention to vote for Marine Le Pen’s colt’s list, compared to 18% for that of Renaissance, led by Valérie Hayer, according to a study among of 12,000 people published by The world , Monday March 11. Thirteen points difference, a gulf.
In an attempt to counter the RN vote, Emmanuel Macron’s supporters once again attacked the far-right party at length during Valérie Hayer’s big campaign launch meeting on Saturday in Lille. On stage, the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, described the leaders of the RN as agents of “submission” to Russia and alerted against the “vast deception” of “Le Pen clan” : “[Leur] In summary, it’s 40 years of the European Parliament, 40 years of mandate allowances, 40 years of ghosts in the corridors of Brussels and Strasbourg.”. Of the “punchlines” intended to mark opinion and the media, and which are necessary to counter the RN, recently argued an advisor to the executive interviewed by franceinfo. Valérie Hayer, unknown to the general public and late in the campaign, followed in the footsteps of the head of government, even daring a shocking comparison: “Yesterday, Daladier and Chamberlain, today Le Pen and Orban. The same words, the same arguments, the same debates. We are in Munich in 1938.”
“Piercing the Bardella bubble”
In the majority, there are those who approve. “Yes, we have to dramatize the thing, because the time is dramatic, there is a real Munich spirit everywhere”, laments a local leader of the Renaissance party. For many, it is once again a question of pointing out the RN’s connections with Russia, a major axis of the Macronist strategy against the Marinist troops. “All the positions you have held on Russia for ten years are reversed June 18 calls”said Gabriel Attal to Marine Le Pen on Tuesday, during the debate on support for Ukraine in the National Assembly.
“When the RN speaks out against aid to Ukraine, when they always find a good reason to justify Putin rather than helping Zelensky, we must say it, hammer it home and make people understand the seriousness of this position for people who call themselves patriots”, assures Renaissance MP Antoine Armand. “We must be able to pierce the Bardella bubble. We have the arguments”more broadly supports her colleague Nadia Hai.
“We have to hit the RN. We cannot, and we must not, leave them alone.”
Nadia Hai, Renaissance MPat franceinfo
For others, targeting the RN mainly highlights the absence of strategy. “What seems to be emerging is to take on the confrontation with the RN, to intensify the duel, and I believe that it is too late to do otherwise”sighs a member of the majority, who would have liked “explore other avenues”. “Even if it must be emphasized that, in an unstable world, extremes would add instability, the campaign cannot revolve solely around primary anti-Bardellism”, says Renaissance MP Robin Reda. A former government advisor continues: “The bottomless campaign strategy, just a duel in the sun against the RN, is not going to make us win. It is not because Attal is going to demolish Bardella on a plate that we will avoid a sanction vote.”
MoDem and Horizons assume a divergence
Renaissance’s partners – Horizons and the MoDem – are not quite aligned with this anti-RN line. At the Lille meeting, Edouard Philippe and François Bayrou, bosses of these two parties, were the only speakers not to mention the name of Marine Le Pen. The former’s entourage defends itself against any divergence with the presidential party. “He chose to explain why Europe and why be pro-European. It’s a good thing that not all speeches are the same”, we explain. But other executives of the Philippist party are questioning more openly behind the scenes. “This strategy of focusing everything on the RN and Bardella is astonishing”delivers one of them. “I won’t hide from you that the anti-RN harping strategy leaves me wary”confides another, pointing “a risk of electoral ineffectiveness.”
François Bayrou, who preferred to deliver a geopolitical analysis on Saturday, mentioning Iran, China, but also Hamas, expresses the same doubts. “I don’t believe that making the RN or Marine Le Pen the sole targets of all declarations is the best strategy. I think it helps them”he said.
“Making Marine Le Pen the universal opponent is doing her a great service.”
François Bayrou, president of MoDemat franceinfo
The boss of MoDem assures that it is necessary “take height” and take “awareness of what is happening in the world.” “We have entered dangerous times, in a world shift caused by Russia’s attack in Ukrainehe continues. Only Europe can enable us to resist.”
“Above all, let them continue!”
MoDem deputy Bruno Millienne completes François Bayrou’s analysis: “We must also get to the bottom of it, talk about the realities of Europe moving forward, democracy, defense, agriculture… This is what will remobilize our electorate.” Because the emergency is there: Emmanuel Macron’s electorate has considerably retracted over the years, deciphers Gilles Finchelstein, the secretary general of the Jean-Jaurès foundation, in The world. Above all, he continues, “there should not (…) be a spectacular breakthrough as we have seen in the straight line of the 2022 presidential election: the useful vote of strategist voters is less common in an election perceived as secondary with , what’s more, a one-round proportional vote.”
Clearly, the supporters of the Head of State will not be able to count on a barrier vote to the extreme right coming in particular from the left, as happened in the 2017 presidential election and, to a lesser extent, in 2022 The other parties are, moreover, far behind: the lists of Raphaël Glucksmann (PS-Place publique) and Marie Toussaint (Ecologists), which follow those of the RN and Renaissance in the Ipsos poll for The world , respectively collected 11.5% and 8.5% of voting intentions. The list of François-Xavier Bellamy (Les Républicains) is announced at 7%, tied with that of Manon Aubry (La France insoumise). Which makes certain Macronists say that the duel with the RN would not be their fault. “We can’t hear the other candidates. Where are they? Even though they have been nominated by their party for weeks”mocks Nadia Hai. “There is no dynamic anywhere, even at Glucksmann. Our only adversary is the RN. Whether it is a strategy or not, there is not much choice, the situation is like this”adds another Macronist.
In the ranks of the RN, we rub our hands. “Campaigning so hard against the RN, it will come back to them like a boomerang. They are showing their excitement”assures a Marinist deputy. “Given the polls, above all, let them continue!”, quips Renaud Labaye, the secretary general of the RN group in the National Assembly. Not one of Emmanuel Macron’s supporters believes in a victory on June 9. “We will be clear, we will not beat them with [aujourd’hui] 10 or 11 points behind. But we can reduce the gap to 4-5 points, which would already be huge.” ambitions Bruno Millienne. There are a few weeks left to find the right method.