The suspense remains intact for the second round of the legislative elections. The coalition of the presidential majority, baptized Together!, obtains 25.2% of the votes, Sunday June 12, tied with the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and parliamentary channels. Emmanuel Macron’s camp would have, according to the first projections, to be taken with caution, from 255 to 295 seats in the National Assembly. It is not certain to obtain an absolute majority, set at 289 seats.
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In 2017, Emmanuel Macron’s party, En Marche, won 313 seats in the National Assembly. Five years later, it seems complicated for La République en Marche to win such a majority on its own. The presidential party will therefore have to rely on its allies within Ensemble! to win: Horizons, the formation of Edouard Philippe; Act, that of Minister Franck Riester; and Francois Bayrou’s Modem. The stakes are crucial: without a Palais Bourbon committed to his cause, the head of state will not be able to push through the reforms of his second term and will have to, in the event of a relative majority, negotiate with his opponents.
With very high abstention, estimated at 52.3% by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, the bar was high to qualify for the second round, since it was necessary to bring together more than 12.5% of those registered. Result: the majority found themselves facing a duel with either a candidate from the New People’s Ecological and Social Union, or from the Republicans or the National Rally. The left-wing coalition manages to shake Emmanuel Macron’s supporters.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his allies were the only ones to inject momentum during this sluggish electoral campaign by betting on an effective watchword: to make the leader of La France insoumise the next Prime Minister. “No political party can impose a name on the president”, retorted the President of the Republic. There is one week left for the Head of State and his supporters to convince the voters and hope not to find themselves in the complex scenario of cohabitation. On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron said to himself “determined to bring together”according to his entourage at France Télévisions.