Russian dominance in the Black Sea had hitherto seemed indisputable. The loss of the Russian cruiser MoskvaThursday, represents a significant operational pitfall for the Russians in the war in Ukraine, but above all a colossal symbolic loss.
The flagship of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, in service since the early 1980s, sank within hours. He took with him some of the pride of President Vladimir Putin’s armed forces, already strained since the start of his invasion of Ukraine in late February.
According to Moscow, he was hit by a fire that detonated ammunition. For kyiv, he was the victim of a missile attack, a version accredited by the Pentagon on Friday.
In both cases, “it’s a very strong symbolic loss,” said ex-Admiral Pascal Ausseur, director general of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.
A ship like this is normally trained to keep fighting after one or more hits and knows how to control a fire, the warship’s nightmare. “It is a 12,000 ton boat, which sank in 12 hours […]. This is not how it is planned, ”he adds to AFP.
This 186-meter missile cruiser was armed with 16 Bazalt/Voulkan anti-ship missiles, Fort missiles, the navy version of the long-range S-300 missiles, and short-range Ossa missiles. It also had rocket launchers, cannons and torpedoes.
Air cover
Its crew could number up to 680 men, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. It “provided air cover for other vessels during their operations, including the bombardment of the coast and landing maneuvers,” said Odessa regional military administration spokesman Sergei Brachuk on Telegram.
The operational shortfall is both significant and manageable for Moscow, according to Western sources contacted by AFP.
It was protecting the entire 150 kilometer diameter around its position, says Nick Brown, an expert at Britain’s private Janes Intelligence Institute. “With the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits closed by Turkey to Russian ships, it will be difficult for Russia to replace its air defense capabilities,” he argues.
But “the rest of the Black Sea Fleet remains a powerful force”, he tempers, with in particular modern frigates of the Admiral Grigorovich type equipped with more modern air defenses than the Moskva, albeit of shorter range, and Kalibr land attack missiles. “The Russian fleet has not been put out of action. »
However, Moscow takes a spectacular slap. After renouncing, against all odds, to take absolute control of Ukrainian airspace and having shown significant tactical and strategic weaknesses in the first weeks of its ground operations, here is its navy affected.
“Real Vulnerability”
“The loss of the ship itself will not technically set Moscow back, as the Russian Navy’s involvement in the war was quite limited,” notes Maia Otarashvili of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Washington.
But Moscow could take this into account if it considered “involving the navy more directly in the conflict”. Because if the Moskva was hit by Neptune missiles, perhaps combined with the use of a drone for marking purposes or decoys, as claimed by the Ukrainian forces, the question of the reality of their equipment arises.
“Does Ukraine have naval defense capabilities that Moscow has not assessed? asks Maia Otarashvili, who points out that the government of Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly called for coastal missiles to fill its gaps.
“What kind of newly obtained anti-ship missiles does Ukraine have? What kind of damage to the Russian Navy could it cause? »
The details of the attack suffered by the ship will not be known immediately. Observation of the hull is essential to establish them, but it is now at the bottom of the Black Sea.
There remains the image of a prestigious building, which distinguished itself in Georgia in 2008 and in Syria in 2015-2016, with a reputedly experienced crew who deemed it essential to evacuate the ship, for lack of being able to save it.
“It was the command boat, there was probably the staff which commands the naval group on the spot”, concludes for his part Pascal Ausseur. They will have to designate another building to carry out these coordination functions.
“It’s a very small sea, everyone is within range of anti-ship missiles. Detection and identification are very simple,” he adds. The disappearance of Moskva “shows a real vulnerability” of the Russian Navy.