(Ottawa) About twenty Liberal MPs ask Justin Trudeau to take a walk in the leaves that now cover the paths of Gatineau Park to think about its future. At the end of this walk, he should, according to them, consider leaving for the good of the Liberal Party.
Before even setting foot in the country, in the early hours of Saturday morning, after having participated in an international summit in Laos, Justin Trudeau must face a revolt from some of his troops, more worried than ever about the fate that awaits them at home. from the next electoral campaign.
Liberal MPs, mainly from the Atlantic provinces and southwestern Ontario, took advantage of the absence of the Prime Minister and his close guard last week to begin their mutiny, the daily reported Friday evening Toronto Star and the CBC and CTV networks.
Their gesture brings to the forefront of the news the famous proverb according to which when the cat is gone, the mice dance.
A letter demanding Mr. Trudeau’s departure was circulated during the regional caucuses meeting on Wednesday, before the national caucus meeting. At least twenty deputies have signed it so far.
A dozen others would be ready to put their signature on the document which circulates discreetly among those who are ready to push their leader towards the exit door.
Nova Scotia MP Kody Blois is quoted by the Toronto Star as one of the leaders of this new revolt.
The polls which have been accumulating for 18 months and which give a lead of 15 to 20 points to the Conservative Party make many Liberal MPs shudder who fear an electoral disaster if Justin Trudeau hangs on.
The party’s defeat in the Liberal strongholds of Toronto–St. Paul’s, in June, and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, in September, during by-elections, accentuated the feeling of panic.
The Prime Minister’s refusal to change course, by fundamentally reshuffling his cabinet or his team of close collaborators, or by launching an all-out advertising campaign to redefine Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is fueling frustration.
After the defeat in Toronto–St. Paul’s, a Liberal MP from New Brunswick, Wayne Long, said that Justin Trudeau should bow out for the good of the party. But he was the only one to do so publicly.
The avalanche of bad news for the Liberal troops – two polls released last week indicated that the New Democratic Party (NDP) had overtaken the second-place Liberal Party by a small point in voting intentions outside Quebec – seems to have convinced other deputies to take action.
The main person concerned has reaffirmed numerous times in recent months his firm intention to lead the liberal troops in the next election.
Even recently, in a nearly hour-long interview with his MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, who hosts a podcast show called UncommonsJustin Trudeau said he was looking forward to crossing swords with Pierre Poilievre during the next election campaign. He argued that Canadians will better assess the risks associated with a possible election of the Conservative leader when the spotlight is on him.
The simplistic solutions and hollow slogans that Pierre Poilievre proposes to the housing crisis, the rising cost of living, the fight against crime, social inequalities and the sustainability of social programs will end up turning against him , according to Justin Trudeau.
But more and more liberal elected officials are skeptical of these optimistic statements.
The fact remains that this revolt movement is taking shape in a highly risky political context. A context that is not very favorable to a changing of the guard.
First, a race for leadership of a political party generally lasts three to six months. It also gives rise to strong tensions between those who aspire to the throne. The various opposing camps need time to heal their wounds after such a confrontation.
However, the Liberal Party does not have much time at its disposal to organize such a leadership race. There are at most 12 months before the next election.
Then, Justin Trudeau leads a minority government. Nothing would prevent opposition parties from joining forces to overthrow the government even during a leadership contest. Especially since the Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois are fully aware that they can make significant gains at the expense of the Liberals in the next election.
Since the start of parliament on September 16, the Conservative Party has tried twice to bring about the fall of the government. The NDP could also take advantage of the disorganization in the Liberal ranks to present itself as the alternative option for progressive voters.
Finally, those who are calling for the departure of Justin Trudeau do not have at their head a champion of their cause who could deal a final blow to the current leader and take over quickly. Over the past 50 years, the Liberal Party has always been able to count on a candidate “in reserve from the Republic”.
And this candidate – whether Pierre Trudeau, John Turner, Jean Chrétien or Paul Martin – could count on a solid organization of supporters ready to go to the front at any time to defend his cause. This is clearly not the case today.
The nagging question therefore remains the same: who could succeed Justin Trudeau in such a short time and then launch an electoral campaign?
The main candidates who aspire to succeed him are well known: Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Industry François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly, President of the Treasury Board Anita Anand, and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney.
But none of them can boast of having the notoriety or the organization required to carry out a leadership campaign in a few weeks.
Barring a miracle, the Liberals are headed for a crushing electoral defeat, if the polls are anything to go by. And unless there is a major turnaround, the Liberals will have to take the hit by having Justin Trudeau as their leader.