Three days before the first round of the legislative elections, an Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for Radio France and France Télévisions illustrates an increasingly uncertain outcome.
Article written by
Published
Reading time : 1 min.
The gap narrows and nothing is decided. This is the main lesson of this survey carried out at the beginning of the week. A duel between the Macronist majority and the Melenchonist left is emerging. The two coalitions are neck and neck in votes in the first round with 28% of voting intentions for Nupes and 27% for the candidates of Ensemble. The National Rally comes far behind at 19.5%. And in seats, the Head of State no longer has the assurance of obtaining an absolute majority. It stands at 289 deputies and according to the projection of the Ipsos institute, Together would obtain between 260 and 300, while the Nupes would oscillate between 175 and 215 seats.
In the event of a relative majority, the government of Elisabeth Borne would be forced to find other allies in the Assembly to have its bills approved, on a case-by-case basis. The paradox is that the right, rolled in the presidential election and in sharp decline in the legislative elections, could find a role of decisive arbiter. It is the LR deputies, between 35 and 55 according to the projection of Ipsos, who could make the balance according to the texts.
This case of a relative majority occurred only once under the Fifth Republic, after the re-election of François Mitterrand in 1988. Prime Minister Michel Rocard had to fight in the Assembly to wrest the support of deputies from the centre- right. Often in vain, moreover, since he remains the champion of all categories of prime ministers who have had recourse to article 49-3 to have their texts adopted without a vote. He used it 28 times in three years! For Elisabeth Borne, the situation would be more delicate since from now on, the tenant of Matignon can only resort to 49-3 once per session.
Cohabitation with the left seems less likely: according to this survey, barely half of left-wing voters believe in it. Abstention could break a new record, with only 46% participation, three points less than five years ago. And it strikes the young electorate even more. It is to mobilize it, especially in the suburbs, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon saw fit to trigger a controversy by accusing the police of killing. Conversely, Emmanuel Macron relies on the reinforcement of right-wing voters to prevent the rise to power of the rebellious. A reflex of “useful vote” which could once again, as in the presidential election, be fatal to LR candidates.