The Réseau express métropolitain (REM) could suffer financially from the drop in the number of users of the Montreal public transport network, say experts.
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“If traffic is not there, profits may not be there,” summarizes Jean-Philippe Meloche, professor and director of the School of Urban Planning and Architecture of landscape of the University of Montreal.
The REM will be operated by CDPQ Infra, a subsidiary of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. She expects to achieve an 8% return on her investment.
An agreement was negotiated with Quebec for subsidies based on the number of passengers per kilometer, and not on the availability of services. The CDPQ Infra then bet everything on traffic.
However, public transport users have been fewer since the pandemic, which affects the finances of transport companies (see other text).
For example, commuter train ridership currently represents 50% of that of 2019, according to its operator Exo.
“The REM was designed with a view to 2019. Even before it enters service, we are already wondering if there is not too much public transport for our needs,” explains Mr. Meloche.
Little flexibility
The Caisse de depot has almost no other alternative solution if the traffic does not follow. It would be impossible to play on the ticket price and it would be difficult to make cuts. Without drivers, the REM entails few operating costs for staff.
“All that is hoped is that it will not hurt too much,” says the professor.
The CDPQ Infra is also not certain of being able to count on Quebec for additional subsidies.
“The Caisse insisted so much on the fact that it would assume [entièrement] the risk that Quebec would probably not receive such a request positively, ”advances Michel Beaulé, adviser on the financing of public transport.
Security net
According to him, the CDPQ Infra still has “a safety cushion” since it negotiated its subsidies based on potentially low traffic.
The Caisse also relies on a transport monopoly to the South Shore and the West Island. “They even forced the transport companies to drop everything on the REM,” adds Mr. Meloche.
“We remain confident in our forecasts, the CDPQ Infra model is anchored in a long-term perspective”, reacts Emmanuelle Rouillard-Moreau, spokesperson for CDPQ Infra.
The REM should welcome its first passengers this spring between the South Shore and downtown Montreal.
Telecommuting harms public transport
The main rival of public transport is no longer the car, but teleworking, which is increasingly affecting the finances of transport companies, believes an expert.
“Public transit works well in very high density areas when a lot of people have the same destination. If you don’t have a dynamic downtown, you don’t have dynamic public transit,” said Jean-Philippe Meloche.
Fewer and fewer people are moving in the metropolis. According to the latest figures from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM), current metro ridership is only 72% of that of 2019.
It is currently 74% for the bus. The reduction is also felt in commuter trains.
The STM was forced to end its 10-minute bus service. It was also forced to cut spending by $18 million to deal with a budget hole now estimated at $60 million.
The situation is similar for other transportation services in Greater Montreal. The Regional Metropolitan Transport Authority (ARTM) currently has a deficit of $500 million.
“Operators are trying to maintain services until people return. But if people don’t come back, it’s putting money in the trash,” said Mr. Meloche.
Transport services will therefore certainly have no choice but to readjust the frequencies of their modes of travel according to the most popular days for work in the office.
According to Jean-Maxime St-Hilaire, spokesperson for exo, commuter train traffic to the city center is higher from Tuesday to Thursday.
“It’s not just in Montreal that people no longer go downtown with public transit, it’s in all the big cities of the world,” however, recalled the professor.