This text is taken from the Courrier de l’économie. To subscribe, click here.
A year ago, the labor shortage was so severe that finding a job in customer service was almost a snap of the fingers. Employers seemed desperate.
“Students could arrive without a CV and get hired without an interview,” recalls Guylaine Turpin, general director of Carrefour Jeunesse-Emploi (CJE) Saint-Hubert. “Employers were willing to give everyone a chance.”
But this year, the CJEs have been inundated with requests from students looking for summer jobs. Some still hadn’t found one by the end of June, according to Nicolas Bourgois, director of the Collectif autonome des CJE du Québec. He recommends that they call on their contacts, among their family and friends, as well as lower their expectations. They must now accept less attractive conditions, including reduced hours and evening and weekend schedules.
Indeed, the labour shortage is no longer what it used to be. The number of vacant positions in Quebec fell by nearly 30% between the first quarter of 2023 and that of 2024, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec, which analyzed data from Vacancy and Salary Survey Statistics Canada. Some sectors that were starving for the past two years are now looking for half as many workers. The number of available positions in retail trade has dropped from 21,000 to 12,500, and in accommodation and food services from 21,000 to 11,000. In addition, the majority of jobs posted require a higher education level.
The unemployment rate stood at 5.7% in June, compared to 4.5% at the same date last year.
“We’re back to the level we were at on the eve of the pandemic,” says Emna Braham, executive director of the Institut du Québec. “At that time, we must not forget that there were already recruitment difficulties.”
The economic slowdown has something to do with it, explains the economist. In the manufacturing sector, entrepreneurs have fewer orders, since consumers are making fewer purchases in stores. The communications director of the Conseil québécois du commerce de détail (CQCD), Geneviève Duval, points out that the number of bankruptcies has jumped in Canada in her sector.
Employers have adapted
The wave of baby boomer retirements, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has created a shock in workplaces, according to Yves Carrière, associate professor in the Department of Demography at the Université de Montréal. Many employers were caught off guard. But they ended up adapting by increasing their productivity or reducing their services.
“They are adjusting to a new reality, because the demographic context will not change for decades,” says Mr. Carrière, adding that “the worst is just behind us.”
“There has been a reorganization of work, a transformation of commerce, a little more online sales than before,” explains Geneviève Duval. “Opening hours have changed, some stores are not open on certain days. We also have the use of technologies, such as self-service checkouts.”
So the shortage is no longer “as glaring,” she admits. “Employers can afford to be a little more selective. Young people have to sell themselves more,” continues Mme Duval.
Finally, some of the jobs were filled by temporary foreign workers, particularly in the manufacturing, catering and accommodation sectors, estimates Emna Braham.
More targeted shortages
There will always be shortages, Mr. Carrière said, but “in certain sectors and certain regions.” In education and health, for example, staff shortages continue to be high.
While Montreal restaurateurs can breathe a sigh of relief today, this is not the case in many more remote regions, notes Martin Vézina, vice-president of public affairs for the Association Restauration Québec.
What to expect next? “We expect the economy to pick up in late 2024 and 2025, which could prompt some employers to recruit more,” says Braham. In retail and restaurants, however, business associations suggest that the new practices are here to stay. “We won’t go back to the pre-pandemic model, where we were open all the time,” says Vézina.
François Legault’s government has announced its intention to reduce the number of temporary immigrants. However, it is difficult at this point to know which programs will be subject to cuts and what the consequences will be on the job market, notes Mme Braham.
Guylain Turpin, for her part, is concerned about young people faced with the prevailing discourse that Quebec is still experiencing a labour shortage. “It’s hard on their self-esteem to be told that, when they have difficulty finding a job,” notes the executive director of the CJE Saint-Hubert. She believes that now is the time to help them develop the more advanced skills that are still sought after by employers.
This text is taken from the Courrier de l’économie.