A new outbreak of violence in the Middle East. Again. We can no longer count them: Israel and Palestinian militants or Lebanese Hezbollah beat each other and, like children in a schoolyard, blame each other. But this time, Hamas’ attack on Israel was more sophisticated, complex and deadly.
Despite a security barrier described as “impenetrable”, Hamas managed to infiltrate 22 Israeli villages and communities and take more than a hundred hostages. In the same way that the Germans had easily circumvented the Maginot Line, also “impenetrable”, passing through Belgium, Hamas circumvented the Israeli barrier by passing underneath (through tunnels that they dug), alongside (by sea), and above (in particular by equipping hang gliders with engines).
The world’s most advanced security barrier no longer seems so imposing, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. In the 1990s and 2000s, Hamas and other Palestinian factions used suicide bombings in their asymmetric warfare against Israel. To protect itself, Israel built a wall around the occupied Palestinian territories. Over time, Hamas acquired rockets, which it launched over the wall. To counter the rockets, Israel set up an anti-missile shield, nicknamed the Iron Dome.
Hamas therefore digs tunnels under the wall and shows ingenuity to go around the wall, and even go over it. The cycle will continue: Israel will now make adaptations and Hamas will innovate to break through the new defense system. While the Maginot Line is infamous for its military ineffectiveness, it also reflects the strategic choices and mentality of the time, according to which the Germans were invaders and the only defense strategy was to find the best way to prevent invasion. invader to return.
This is exactly the same mentality that Israelis and Palestinians maintain towards each other today. The “Other” hates us and wants to exterminate us, so all that matters is having the best military plan and thwarting that of the adversary.
However, we know very well today that if Germany has invaded no one since 1945, it is not because of sophisticated defensive lines, innovative military strategies or extraordinary intelligence services which thwart enemy plans, but because the French, Germans and Europeans decided that they had had enough of warring with each other and found political solutions to avoid a fourth Franco-German war. They integrated their economies and created the various European institutions to ensure that the cost of another war would be prohibitive and that there would be no benefit from waging it.
In half a century, war between France and Germany went from inevitable to impossible. It is this maturity and this leadership that are sorely lacking in the Middle East. The Israeli government and what remains of the Palestinian Authority are unfortunately not seeking to resolve the conflict. And even, sometimes, they use it for their own purposes, personal or electoral.
For example, during the September 2019 election campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu even declared that Arabs “ [voulaient] annihilate us all, women, children and men.” Unfortunately, this kind of speech resonates with part of the population. We see the other side with contempt and only as a threat, and we forget that we will have to find a way to coexist without killing each other.
Both sides say the other is not a “partner for peace,” as if Germany in 1945 looked like one. There is obviously a leadership problem. Not only will no one confuse Bibi Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas with Konrad Adenauer or Robert Schuman, but on both sides it would be difficult to have worse leaders.
There is also the fact that violence and extremism are rewarded. In Israel, Likud and far-right parties benefit politically from each wave of violence. Hamas, for its part, will probably succeed in freeing thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the hostages captured in their latest offensive.
Incentives encourage violence, not peace or negotiation. It would be surprising if this warlike dynamic in the Middle East disappeared with the current wave of violence. But it’s time to question it. And, you never know, if a new generation of leaders decides to take inspiration from post-World War II Europe, nothing is impossible.