Media outlets around the world are wondering whether the Israel-Hamas war will escalate into a conflagration involving the entire Middle East.
The trigger for such an escalation could well be the assassination a few days ago of Hamas deputy commander Saleh al-Arouri by an Israeli air attack in Lebanon.
In retaliation, the pro-Iranian Lebanese armed group Hezbollah struck an Israeli military post with a barrage of 62 rockets, saying the attack was only “part of the initial response” to the assassination of Saleh al- Arouri. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel against escalation, saying there would be “no caps” and “no rules” for his group’s fighters if Israel committed to it.
The Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 killed 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, and around 240 others were taken hostage, 130 of whom remain in captivity. The conflict has already caused thousands of deaths (22,700 Palestinians and some 1,300 Israelis) and tens of thousands of civilian injuries, the majority of them children. More than two million Palestinians in Gaza have had to flee their homes. 80,000 Israelis living near the Lebanese border have been evacuated and relocated, with Hezbollah and other Islamist groups shelling the region daily.
Hezbollah, a formidable adversary
Financed and equipped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah is more powerful and better equipped than the regular Lebanese armed forces.
Hezbollah boasts of being able to field 100,000 fighters, which seems exaggerated. But could possess some 100,000 drones, rockets and missiles, some with 450 kg of explosives and capable of hitting targets anywhere in Israel.
Its militia fought Israeli forces during their occupation of southern Lebanon in 1982. Hezbollah faced Israel again in 2006 in a five-week war that left more than 1,200 Lebanese civilians dead and 158 Israelis which ended in a UN-brokered agreement.
The war is taking its toll on the Israeli economy
The war of extermination that Netanyahu and his cabinet are waging against Hamas is proving more complex, more difficult than expected. As the war drags on, Israel’s economy is strained. Israel absolutely needs a large portion of the reservists mobilized to invade and occupy Gaza to return to civilian work. More than 300,000 Israelis have been conscripted, many from the economically vital high-tech sector leading to labor shortages. As a result, the Israeli economy is expected to contract by 2% this quarter. Under these conditions Netanyahu and the IDF general staff would lack the manpower to open on a second front in Lebanon. And if the conflict were to spread to other regions of the Middle East, it is almost inevitable that the Americans would be forced to intervene on Israel’s side. This would make their situation untenable in Iraq where the government is already threatening to expel them for having assassinated in Baghdad a pro-Iranian militia leader whom they accused of leading attacks against the approximately 2,500 American soldiers deployed in Iraq to fight against the state. Islamic.