The Russian offensive in Ukraine has changed the world map of pollution: global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to reach a “high point” in 2025, due in particular to a “deep reorientation” global energy markets since February, estimated the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday 27 October.
For the first time, the three scenarios studied each year by the agency identify a peak or a plateau in the consumption of each of the fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil), which emit greenhouse gases, suffocate the planet and cause its warming. “It is not enough to avoid serious climate impacts, but it is progress compared to the situation we were in a few years ago”wrote on Twitter Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA.
For the 1st time ever, today’s policy settings are strong enough to deliver a distinct peak in fossil fuel use within this decade.
This isn’t enough to avoid severe climate impacts, but it’s progress from where we were a few years ago. Stronger policies can steepen the decline. pic.twitter.com/nL4Mzz9Q91
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) October 27, 2022
In the central scenario, which is based on the commitments already announced by governments in terms of climate investments (“Inflation Reduction Act” in the United States, “Fit for 55” and “RePowerEu” in Europe, “Green transformation” in Japan …), global CO2 emissions would thus peak at 37 billion tonnes in 2025, then drop to 32 billion tonnes in 2050. But despite these efforts, average temperatures would increase by around 2.5 degrees by 2100, which who is “far from sufficient to avoid severe climatic consequences”.
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The IEA once again stresses the need for massive investment in clean energies, whether green or simply carbon-free such as nuclear, and for acceleration in certain areas such as electric batteries (for cars), photovoltaics, and the electrolyzers which will produce hydrogen intended to decarbonise industry in particular.