The blank or null vote came first during the consultation carried out by Jean-Luc Mélenchon with his supporters for the second round of the presidential election. Whether through a blank vote or abstention, two thirds of these activists have opted not to vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron. However, the leader of France Insoumise obtained very high scores among young people and it is a generational divide that is emerging today in the electorate, according to Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the polling institute Ipsos , questioned on April 17 on franceinfo.
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franceinfo: Is there a divide between the generations at the time of the vote?
Matthew Gallard: This is something that we already saw in 2017, but which has become even more pronounced. Among young people, those under 35, there is a very strong vote in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who comes first among them, but also in favor of Marine Le Pen, while among seniors, those aged 60 and over , Emmanuel Macron comes very far in the lead. So, indeed, between the generations, there are more and more totally divergent political behaviors.
️ Voting in the first round of the presidential election based on age, an important factor for the three main candidates. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/g0Z4hjS3Kh
— mathieu gallard (@mathieugallard) April 11, 2022
And obviously, this generational gap covers in particular differences in terms of positions and preferences on the economic and social policy to be followed, and also conflicts of values with in particular all the questions which are linked to the rights of minorities, to immigration on which young and old have very different views and perceptions.
Can young people also have the feeling of being a little forgotten by macronie?
Emmanuel Macron had said a lot and put a lot of emphasis on youth during his campaign in 2017, it is really a tradition of electoral campaigns. And it is true that there may have been the feeling among part of the youth of having been forgotten, especially during the health crisis. We really feel it when we listen to young people, whether they are students, whether they are young workers in the field. And then, moreover, there was a campaign by Jean-Luc Mélenchon which was extremely effective on the ground, speaking in particular of purchasing power, which attracted part of the votes of this electorate. And Marine Le Pen has also been in the same niche, very active and very offensive on this social issue. So obviously that has attracted these young people who are entering the world of work and are extremely uncertain, even worried about their future.
There are social issues but there are also climate issues, the idea of a world that has been ruined by the “boomers”?
Absolutely. It’s true that we saw during the campaign that the environment was an important concern for the French, second only to the question of purchasing power, but among young people, very high, almost as strong as the power of ‘purchase. And then obviously, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, precisely, had the intelligence to put this environmental aspect forward during his electoral campaign. And that allowed him to take the advantage within the left over Yannick Jadot who, however, at the start of the campaign, was obviously identified as the strongest candidate on this environmental issue.
Are we not also in a more classic phenomenon, of greater radicalism among youth and greater moderation among older people?
As for the moderation of older people, we will say that among older voters, there is, whatever happens, election after election, a more legitimist behavior. There is a tendency to support the party in power more. That is found almost systematically and moreover in many countries.
“Youth extremism? Not necessarily. A few years ago, at least a decade ago, there weren’t really any very marked differences between the vote of young people and the vote of other categories of the population.”
Mathieu Gallardat franceinfo
We saw that they voted a little more for the center left, for the ecologists, but the differences were not very marked, finally. In 2017, we had for the first time a really clear gap and there, it was even accentuated. In a France which we know is very fractured at the social level, at the geographical level, if we add this generational dimension to it, it paints a somewhat worrying portrait of the country and its future.
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In the consultation launched by the Insoumis, their activists had the choice between abstention, the white vote or the Macron vote for the second round. Last week, you told us that, according to Ipsos surveys, nearly 20% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters would vote for Marine Le Pen?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the leaders of La France insoumise were very clear. On the evening of the first round, they said that there would be “not a voice for Marine Le Pen”. So, logically, they did not offer this option to their militants. What we see is that, in any case, for a few days and since the first round, the share of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters who would vote for Marine Le Pen has tended to shrink a little over the weather [elle est passée de 18% le 13 avril à 16% le 16 avril, selon le sondage Ipsos pour franceinfo et Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui en France]. We have the impression that the famous republican front is being put in place very, very slowly, in a very degraded version compared to what we had in 2017 and even more in 2002. But little by little, it is being put in place . We now have less than one Jean-Luc Mélenchon voter in five who will make this choice, against a large third who would vote for Emmanuel Macron.