The Russian army sent reinforcements to the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv on Friday, September 9, while kyiv says it has regained control of 30 localities in this border area with Russia. “We are gradually taking control of new localities. We are bringing back the Ukrainian flag everywhere and protection to our citizens”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video. For General Jérôme Pellistrandi, this Ukrainian offensive “is a relative surprise” proof that “the information was effective”. On franceinfo on Friday, the editor-in-chief of the journal Défense Nationale sees in this breakthrough “an offensive attack” which shows that “the initiative is on the Ukrainian side and no longer on the Russian side”.
franceinfo: Is this offensive in the West a surprise?
Jerome Pellistrandi: It is a relative surprise insofar as the effort of the forces of kyiv remains in the area of Kherson and obviously, the information was effective. The Ukrainians realized that there was a weakness on the Russian side, therefore in the Kharkiv region. So they made an attack of opportunity which seems extremely effective. We see it today, the initiative is on the Ukrainian side and no longer on the Russian side.
In any case, this translates on the one hand, the agility of the Ukrainian forces to change or vary their efforts on the ground and on the other hand, it underlines the fact that the Russians are in extremely embarrassing situations, since they are on the defensive, they are obliged to make massive transfers of units between the South and the North in order to fill the gaps. And so, we see, the initiative has changed.
Are the Ukrainians winning against the Russians thanks to Western aid, in particular via the battle for intelligence?
Obviously, the intelligence loop with Western support is extremely effective. What does that mean ? This means that the Ukrainians, who do not have a favorable balance of power in terms of equipment in particular, are able to strike quickly, strike with precision and destabilize the Russian system which is much heavier, much more hierarchical and much less agile in responding to Ukrainian counter-attacks.
What reaction should we expect from the Russian side?
The difficulty for Moscow is the lack of soldiers. The Russians believed, when they launched the war on February 24, that everything was going to go smoothly and that they would have numerical superiority, and therefore ultimately a favorable balance of power: this is absolutely not the case. And so, the difficulty for the Russians is on the one hand to compensate for the material losses which are significant, but also the human losses, since it is estimated to date that the Russians have lost at least 80,000 soldiers between the soldiers dead, killed, prisoners, wounded, deserters. For Russia, the situation is extremely embarrassing.
“You still have to be careful. It’s not because today the Russian forces are on the defensive that Vladimir Putin lost the war. And it’s not also because the Ukrainians have tactical successes that they will completely reverse and reclaim the ground they have lost since the end of February.”
General Jerome Pellistrandiat franceinfo
Do the Ukrainians have the means to consolidate their position after taking over several localities?
This is a question that will be essential in the coming month because in about a month, or even a half month, we will enter the winter period. The movements on the ground are going to be much more complicated. And will the Ukrainians somehow be content with having limited, but consolidated goals? Or will they try to go further with the risk of a counterattack then? What will happen in the weeks is that anyway, it’s a long war. And even if during the winter, the intensity of the fighting will decrease, this does not mean that the war will be over.