The influence of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on the US elections

Mexico’s decisions will weigh on the migration situation in the United States. Immigration is at the heart of the American presidential campaign and the Mexican president is able to influence the debates.

Mexico is the essential neighbor in the management of migratory flows towards the United States. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are polar opposites on this issue. Immigration is at the center of the American presidential campaign. And Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as “AMLO”, the Mexican president, above all has many cards in hand to calm or, on the contrary, inflame this debate on immigration to the United States.

On the Mexican side, 800,000 migrants are currently waiting in detention centers, hoping to be able to cross the border. Since 2018, Mexico has been tasked with cleaning up. Washington has delegated part of its migration policy to Mexico, such as sending people back to Central America or putting asylum seekers on hold. Which means AMLO controls the migratory faucet. He will therefore be able, until November, to favor the candidate of his choice.

Signals sent to Joe Biden

Since the start of the year, AMLO has sent very clear signals to Joe Biden, with the intensification of repression on the Mexican side and the installation of checkpoints on the roads going north. At the end of 2023, AMLO also denounced the exploitation of the subject by the American Congress, when it rejected, on Trump’s orders, Joe Biden’s migration reform.

AMLO sends messages even if, officially, he keeps his distance. “They intend to use, which we will not allow, the theme of migration and other subjects to divide the electorate. But Mexico is no one’s piñata”, he declared on February 7 during a press conference. The piñata is this little Mexican birthday toy, which children hit with a stick. In AMLO’s language, Mexico is no one’s puppet. This is the official, independent posture of a head of state. But in reality, AMLO much prefers to work with the Democrats than with the Republicans, or rather the “Make America Great Again” of Trump, on the migration issue.

A presidential election year in Mexico

Especially since he has already worked with the two future candidates for the American election and has always criticized Donald Trump’s coercive approach on the issue: the wall, the separation of families, the reduction of temporary visas for Mexican workers. The agreement with Joe Biden is much more constructive with, for example, the March 2021 agreement. This stipulates tighter control of migratory flows, in exchange for 2.7 million anti-Covid vaccines and a reinforcement of American troops. to calm the cartels.

However, Mexican internal security, the sovereignty of the State threatened by drug traffickers, is the big issue for Lopes Obrador, 2024 is also an election year in Mexico. And the political weight acquired by AMLO in Washington is a valuable asset in the campaign of Claudia Scheinbaum, the designated heir of Lopes Obrador for the presidential election at the end of the year.