The United States is trying to resuscitate a truce project in Gaza but the insistence of Hamas and Israel on recalling their intangible and difficultly compatible positions is raising skepticism about the chances of obtaining a ceasefire in the short term. term.
“From the start, the negotiations have had no chance of succeeding because none of the parties have any interest in them,” reports Jamal Zaqout, former advisor to former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad (currently in office), to AFP. from 2007 to 2013).
Supported by Qatari, American and Egyptian mediation, the truce long awaited by the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip and by the families of the hostages held there has been perceived as close on several occasions since the start of the year, without ever happen.
On May 31, US President Joe Biden outlined the outline of a step-by-step plan to move from a temporary ceasefire to lasting peace in Gaza.
Presented as an initiative approved by Israel, the project calls for the release of hostages held in Gaza, a ceasefire, an increase in humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of Gaza.
In recent weeks, many heads of state and international institutions, such as the UN Security Council on Monday, have urged the belligerents to come to an agreement after more than eight months of a war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and shaken the idea that Israelis had of their security.
Political danger
Washington said it was examining a Hamas response to the ceasefire plan. Several media outlets, notably Israeli, claim that the Palestinian movement rejects it, which one of the group’s leaders denied Wednesday in a statement affirming that Hamas’ response “opens the way to an agreement.”
For its part, Israel has never formally accepted the agreement, the government considering the plan presented by Mr. Biden “incomplete”. And Prime Minister Netanyahu repeats that his conditions for a permanent ceasefire are “the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities” and the release “of all hostages.”
Hamas regularly insists on its own: “complete withdrawal” of the Israeli army, “return of the displaced to their living area”, intangibility of the Gaza borders.
“One of Israel’s prerequisites is to eliminate Hamas and obviously, Hamas is not going to sign an agreement to this effect,” underlines Mr. Zaqout.
At the beginning of May, “Hamas ended up accepting a proposal, supported by the Americans,” he adds, “but there, it was Netanyahu who rejected it.”
“The Israeli Prime Minister knows that an agreement which would clearly sign the end of the war would endanger his coalition [et risquerait de] bring down his government,” notes Michael Horowitz, geopolitical expert for the consulting firm Le Beck, in reference to threats from Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right allies to leave the coalition in the event of an agreement.
“Some Israelis are ready to accept the end of the war,” says Mr. Horowitz. “But this remains a controversial subject, because some Israelis also believe that, if allowed to do so, Hamas will simply repeat attacks similar to those of October 7. »
“At some point in negotiations […]if a party keeps changing its demands, in particular to demand things and insist on changing what has already been accepted, we come to wonder if it is in good faith, declared Wednesday the American Secretary of State , Antony Blinken, at the end of a regional tour.
Dashed hopes
On October 7, the war was triggered by a surprise attack by Hamas which resulted in the deaths of 1,194 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP count based on official Israeli data.
Of the 251 people kidnapped by Hamas commandos, 116 are still being held in Gaza, 41 of whom were declared dead by the army.
The Israeli military campaign of retaliation has killed more than 37,200 Palestinians, the majority civilians, according to data from the Health Ministry of the Hamas government in Gaza.
On both camps, the disappointed hopes of a truce are torture.
In early May, a crowd jumped for joy in Deir el-Balah, in central Gaza, when Hamas announced that it had accepted a ceasefire agreement. “It is a great joy, we hope that the war will end,” said Khaled, a resident of Gaza.
In Israel at the same time, Yehuda Cohen, father of hostage Nimrod Cohen, urged the government to move forward: “Put an end to this horror and bring our loved ones home.”
Vain appeal. The only truce in this war lasted seven days and allowed the release of 105 hostages in Gaza at the end of November, compared to 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.