The question everyone was asking on Friday, when President Joe Biden left Ottawa, was: “What did Canada give in exchange for closing Roxham Road?” Allow me to submit an answer: nothing. Or almost.
Canada has agreed to welcome 15,000 more refugees per year from the Americas, which is really not the sea to drink when you consider that, according to the last census, it welcomed more than 218,000 between 2016 and 2021.
But for the federal government, it’s a thorn that has been pulled out of its foot. It should be noted in passing that the Trudeau government did not seriously begin to try to find a solution to the Roxham Road question until the question became Canadianized.
It is hardly a caricature to say that it became a pressing problem when the mayor of Niagara Falls said he feared for his tourist season if refugees from Roxham continued to occupy hotel rooms for too long. When Quebec complained, it was less urgent…
But back to the question: why would President Biden give Justin Trudeau this gift? Mainly because it cost him nothing. Although some Republicans would like to politicize the issue of the northern border of the United States, there is no real problem of illegal immigration from north to south.
Of course, it took time because all kinds of terms had to be worked out. But the main ingredient remains political will. And what was clear during this short official visit by President Biden was that he came to celebrate the good relations between two friendly countries.
And without specific requests. Thus, even if, in recent months, the American administration had asked Canada to take the lead of an international mission in Haiti, Mr. Biden accepted Canada’s arguments arguing that such a mission would be quite useless that Haiti would not have regained a minimum of governmental authority – starting with the refoundation of a national police force.
It must be said that the war in Ukraine demonstrated, in the eyes of Washington, that Canada was a good ally, within the limits of its means. The shipments of military equipment to Ukraine and the 700 Canadian soldiers in Latvia (out of a multinational force of 1300 soldiers) in a NATO deterrence mission are seen as a significant contribution.
In short, President Biden leaves with a gentleman’s agreementor, as we say in sport, with “future considerations” on the part of Canada.
That said, there is no guarantee that closing the anomaly of Roxham Road will provide a permanent solution to the problem of irregular immigration.
Refugee aid groups have been saying it for months: Closing Roxham Road doesn’t solve anything by itself. It is inevitable that other passages will be found within a 9000 kilometer border. You won’t find the relative security and reception facilities that ended up being installed on Roxham Road. But it is certain that we will still try to cross the border by avoiding the official entry points.
Speaking only of Quebec, anyone familiar with the border region in the Eastern Townships knows that it is not particularly difficult to cross. Especially if networks of smugglers resurrect and get started.
This is why the Government of Quebec is rejoicing a little too quickly at its great victory. Especially since he says at the same time that it is up to the federal government to take care of the border. It’s a little “not in my backyard”.
In the end, those who manage to enter Canada – even if in smaller numbers – will continue to need the services of the Quebec government and community groups. Which obviously does not clear the federal government of having taken this issue lightly for far too long.
Finally, there is a joker in the file. The Supreme Court of Canada is due to rule in the coming months on a challenge to the legality of the Safe Third Country Agreement led by the Canadian Council for Refugees and other organizations.
A Federal Court judge had ruled in 2017 that the Agreement violated the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, but the Federal Court of Appeal reversed that decision in 2021. It is always risky to try to predict what the Supreme Court. But most observers believe the Safe Third Country Agreement will survive this challenge. That said, you never know.
But even if the Agreement were to be confirmed, it is clear that Canada will remain, as it has been known for half a century, one of the countries in the world most open to refugees and that they will not stop trying to get into it. Regularly or not.