Karsten Schwanke, an ARD meteorologist and skiing enthusiast, discusses the effects of climate change on ski tourism, highlighting the decline of resorts, particularly in lower mountain ranges in Germany. While some areas adapt, like Zermatt, which benefits from higher altitudes, many ski destinations face closures by 2050. Rising costs and limited snow seasons make skiing increasingly exclusive. The shift in focus towards luxury markets and alternative winter activities, such as tobogganing, reflects the changing landscape of winter sports.
Even during ski vacations, ARD weather specialist Karsten Schwanke highlights the undeniable impacts of climate change. While some ski resorts face a bleak future, others seem to thrive.
Karsten Schwanke represents a unique blend of passion and professionalism. As both an avid skier and a meteorologist for ARD, he confronts the stark realities of the accelerating global warming phenomenon.
In the Sport Inside podcast, Schwanke shares his personal experiences on the slopes. ‘Reflecting on the past two winters, it’s alarming to note that January, typically a peak ski month, brought rainfall to high-altitude resorts in Austria and Switzerland, reaching elevations of up to 2,500 meters. Such occurrences were unheard of in the 1990s and early 2000s.’
By 2024, the critical 1.5-degree temperature threshold has already been surpassed, resulting in a wave of extreme weather events globally. While some high-altitude destinations like Zermatt manage to adapt, the sport of skiing is becoming increasingly costly and exclusive.
Karsten Schwanke’s Perspective: ‘We Will Witness the End’
Schwanke’s dual roles as a hobbyist and expert make him a go-to source for advice among friends. ‘More of my friends are inquiring: Karsten, how long can we continue skiing? I respond: We will likely see the day when skiing becomes impossible.’
Experts concur that ski tourism in Germany is rapidly becoming outdated, particularly in lower mountain ranges such as the Black Forest, Harz, and Ore Mountains. While these regions may still enjoy occasional winter days, resorts like Winterberg in the Sauerland could struggle to maintain serious ski tourism without extensive artificial snowmaking, which also requires low temperatures.
Those seeking snow and winter sports towards year-end can still find options in the Sauerland.
Are Low Mountain Ski Areas Facing Closure by 2050?
Jürgen Schmude, an esteemed tourism researcher from the University of Munich, describes artificial snow as merely a temporary solution. ‘Currently, it seems financially viable; otherwise, ski resorts wouldn’t invest in it,’ Schmude noted during an interview on WDR 5. However, he warns that ‘the low mountain ranges are likely to vanish from the winter sports map in the long term—meaning by 2050.’
The outlook for the German Alps isn’t much brighter. According to Schmude, by 2050, ‘only a couple of ski resorts might remain viable for winter operations.’
Schönau am Königssee: From Skiing to Tobogganing
Eventually, the financial burden of producing artificial snow and preparing slopes becomes untenable. In Schönau am Königssee, this reality has already set in. The ski area at Jenner, which reaches an elevation of 1,672 meters, has shuttered its operations. Despite a significant 57 million euro investment in new lifts and slope expansions in 2019, the influx of skiers fell short.
Now, the town is entering its first winter without skiing, instead focusing on a toboggan run that can be maintained at a fraction of the cost.
Tourists Are Mindful of Their Budgets
A significant challenge for ski resorts in Germany is that many visitors are cost-conscious, especially regarding ski pass prices. Maximilian Wittig, a geologist at the University of Munich who studies winter sports amid climate change, advises that every price increase should be carefully considered. ‘With each increase in ticket prices, we must recognize that certain demographics may no longer be part of the target market,’ Wittig explained on the Plusminus podcast.
However, expenses continue to rise as more artificial snow becomes necessary and ski seasons shorten. This forces resorts to generate revenue over fewer snowy days, making price hikes unavoidable. As a result, skiing is increasingly seen as an elite sport rather than a widely accessible one, with only higher-altitude areas likely to offer ski slopes by mid-century.
‘Ski tourism will persist, and it will continue to thrive,’ asserts tourism expert Schmude. ‘But those areas are not in Germany; they are in France, Switzerland, Austria, or Italy.’
Zermatt’s Ski Area: A Beneficiary of Climate Change?
A case in point is Zermatt in Switzerland. The Matterhorn Ski area promotes itself as the highest ski destination in the Alps, reaching nearly 4,000 meters. The Theodul Glacier is even open for summer skiing. Additionally, this extensive ski area crosses into Italy.
Despite the rapid decline of the Matterhorn glacier, Zermatt is well-positioned to outlast many other ski resorts in the Alps. In fact, the Matterhorn Ski Paradise could even benefit from global warming in the short to medium term, despite the associated risks like increased mudslides and rockfalls.
Profiting from Affluent Tourists
Ironically, a market shortage arises as ski resorts close their doors. If demand remains robust, the few surviving resorts can increase prices. Zermatt has excelled in this regard. ‘We are the most expensive ski area in Europe,’ stated Markus Hasler, managing director of Zermatt Bergbahnen AG, in an interview with the ‘Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.’ A family of four can expect to pay around 8,000 euros for a week-long ski holiday in Zermatt, according to economic studies.
Zermatt’s pricing strategy is intentionally steep, aligning with its target demographic. The village markets itself as a luxury destination, drawing affluent tourists from the USA, UK, and Asia, all while boasting the iconic Matterhorn as a backdrop.
New Cable Car and Slopes: Aiming for World Cup Glory?
This approach proves effective, as the mountain railways experience record profits and further investments. The latest highlight is an impressive cable car linking Zermatt to Italy via the Klein Matterhorn—this crossing marks the highest Alpine cable car connection between two nations.
Zermatt is also investing in new slopes, with plans for one to potentially host a ski World Cup event. Recent years saw Zermatt garner negative attention, particularly regarding a proposed spectacular downhill race that was set to kick off the season.
Zermatt-Cervinia Descent: A Controversial Project
However, critics raised valid concerns about the weather conditions at such high altitudes, especially during the early season at the end of December or beginning of November.