The housing crisis, in pieces

No one has a monopoly on good ideas. By putting aside partisanship, which too often prevents the opposition parties’ proposals from making headway, we can move Quebec forward.

This week, we saw a good example when the Minister of Housing, France-Élaine Duranceau, decided to draw inspiration from a proposal from Québec solidaire (QS) to provide some relief to the housing crisis.

With its Bill 65, it imposes a three-year moratorium on most evictions (but not repossessions to accommodate a family member). In addition, it extends the “Françoise David law” which prohibits throwing out a low-income tenant aged 70 and over. From now on, this protection will apply from age 65.

Read “Housing Crisis: A Three-Year Moratorium on Evictions”

With this “humane” gesture which will support the most vulnerable tenants, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) proves two things.

First, she is capable of working with the oppositions, as the Prime Minister promised during the last election campaign. To those who accused him of arrogance, François Legault assured that the pandemic had made him more humble than ever.

Today, it is perhaps the sudden fall of the CAQ, which only obtains 23% of voting intentions, which gives it better support.

Then, the CAQ can change its mind when circumstances require it without seeming like a weather vane. In the present case, the government justifies its change of course by the unprecedented increase in the Quebec population, due to the explosion in the number of non-permanent residents (temporary workers, foreign students, asylum seekers) which is particularly striking to Montreal.

This recent increase is effectively putting pressure on housing. But the imbalance in the real estate market has much deeper roots. In three years, nothing will be resolved if we do not redress the situation.

The challenge is immense. Last year, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimated that 1.2 million housing units would need to be built in Quebec by 2030 to return to the level of affordability of the early 2000s. To arrive, we would need to more than triple housing starts, or build some 150,000 housing units per year, instead of the annual rate of around 50,000 over the last decade.

It’s gone very badly. While the other provinces were racing hard, in 2023, Quebec experienced a historic drop of 32% in housing starts, to 38,900 housing units, a historic low. Admit that it’s paradoxical in the middle of the housing crisis.

The tenants taste it.

Take the metropolitan region of Montreal. Due to a lack of housing, the vacancy rate slipped from 3% in 2021 to 1.5% in 2023… and it should drop to 0.9% in 2026. Prices will rise. The rent for an average two-bedroom unit which cost $1,096 in 2023 will rise to $1,390 in 2026, or 27% more, according to CMHC.

In short, there will be even more families caught at each other’s throats.

However, the housing crisis has never been one of the CAQ’s priorities, while the Trudeau government took the issue head on in its last budget.

Quebec protested against this federal intrusion into its areas of jurisdiction. With reason. But the best defense is offense, right?

If Quebec does not want to be told what to do, it is time for it to take matters into its own hands and present a comprehensive plan to resolve the housing crisis.

We will not overcome such a complex issue with piecemeal reforms.

Yes, the CAQ has made great progress, particularly with Bill 51 adopted this week. Reform of the construction industry will allow more flexibility in an area where productivity is struggling. After all, you don’t need seven different trades to change a door!

But much remains to be done to speed up construction.

An example: overcoming the “not in my backyard” reflex which nip construction projects in the bud. It is true that Bill 31, adopted by Quebec in February, gives levers to mayors. But it is far from clear that they will have the courage to go against citizens who oppose densification. It would be up to Quebec to take matters in hand, instead of passing the hot potato to the cities.

Another huge challenge: finding funding to develop municipal infrastructure. Without a water distribution network and without sewers, how do you expect developers to build new housing? However, colossal sums are required. Ottawa has just offered six billion to help pay the bill. Except that the provinces will have to do whatever they want so that the money flows.

Plan for tightness.

One thing is certain, we are ripe for a broad reflection on housing. The province needs a real action plan, like in Ontario and British Columbia. Good ideas can come from anywhere. But it is time for Quebec to take the plunge, instead of letting Ottawa and the cities get wet.