The National Rally achieves a historic breakthrough during this second round of legislative elections, Sunday, June 19. With 90 MP seats in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and parliamentary channels, the far-right party achieved its best performance for legislative elections and thus exceeded its record of the second round of March 16, 1986. At the time, the party of Jean-Marie Le Pen had obtained 35 deputies, thanks to the proportional voting system in a single round.
>> Results, analysis and reactions: follow the election night of the second round of the legislative elections
Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at CNRS and Cevipof (Sciences Po) and author of the note “Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour: social-populism against popular capitalism” (in PDF) in March, analyzes this historic breakthrough of the RN after a presidential election where Marine Le Pen had already progressed in the second round.
France info: how do you explain the result of the National Rally for this second round of the legislative elections?
Gilles Ivaldi: For me, there are three main explanations for this political earthquake that no one saw coming. The first is that Marine Le Pen and the National Rally conducted a discreet and furtive campaign, but on a theme that was at the heart of the concerns of the French: purchasing power. His outings on security at the end of the campaign after the incidents at the Stade de France also undoubtedly convinced his electorate.
The second element is that the strategy of demonizing the RN has never had so many effects, as has the gradual renewal of its executives who have managed to anchor themselves locally in many territories throughout France.
Finally, the tripolarization of French politics has benefited the far-right party by opening up a real space for it on the right. Emmanuel Macron is the victim of a flashback. With his strategy of occupying the central space and the rejection vote against his policy, he let the Nupes rush in on the left and the RN on the right. With this victory, Marine Le Pen’s party takes the upper hand over Les Républicains and therefore on the right for the first time. Something tells me that she will have to think very quickly about this strategy of the union of the rights, defended until then by Eric Zemmour.
“The RN vote is a protest vote and therefore difficult to predict by the polls. For my part, I never would have imagined that it could form a group of this size in the National Assembly.”
Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at the CNRSat franceinfo
Edid the ambiguity of the presidential majority around the voting instructions in the event of RN-Nupes duels in the second round not benefit the far right?
Yes, we will have to look at the constituencies concerned in detail, but it is true that the absence of clear voting instructions from Ensemble! did not allow the Republican barrage to fully function. The “ni-ni” of the Sarkozyist right had already dug the first breaches, but this time, the very great ambiguity of the majority undoubtedly enabled the National Rally to win precious seats.
Does this entry into force of the RN at the Palais-Bourbon strengthen Marine Le Pen for the presidential election of 2027?
It’s a personal victory for Marine Le Pen. She accomplished something that her father had never managed to put in place before her. I don’t know what her intentions are for the rest of her career, but what is now certain is that she is taking the RN to an unprecedented level. Afterwards, we will still have to support this group of deputies and manage it. Many of the latter have very little political experience and the party will have to evolve culturally: from protest to an alternative party. Tonight is a real success for Marine Le Pen, but it’s also a real challenge.