Russia’s recent termination of the Black Sea Grains Agreement, which allowed tonnes of Ukrainian grain to be shipped to 45 countries, raises concerns about global food security. With half of Ukraine’s food exports going to developing countries, the move could have significant consequences.
Russia’s historic dissatisfaction with the approaching renewal of the grain agreement is not new. However, for the first time, President Putin has explicitly declared the end of the agreement, causing widespread uncertainty. The possibility of resuming the agreement or suspending it indefinitely would have significant implications for global food security. Surprisingly, many grain futures, including corn and wheat, have been little moved since Monday, which could suggest an imminent extension. Let’s hope so.
However, uncertainty is highly undesirable when it comes to global transactions. Ukraine provides a significant share of world corn and wheat exports. Although shipments by rail remain a possibility, the efficiency of Black Sea transport remains unmatched in the region.
One cannot underestimate the importance of Ukraine in the global food market. Before the war, its food exports had the capacity to feed 400 million people, exceeding the entire population of the United States.
The country’s farmers contributed one-tenth of the world’s wheat production and almost half of the sunflower oil sold internationally. The repercussions of any disruption in this region reverberate around the world, much like what would happen if Canada faced an invasion. Such is the interconnected nature of global markets.
The Black Sea Grains Agreement has played a vital role in allaying fears about food security and potential famine. This agreement avoided an even worse situation, as food prices peaked in grocery stores only 12 months ago due to inflationary pressures caused by the ongoing war. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) cereal price index was 147.3 points after the start of the conflict and fell by 14% in June, reaching 126.6 points. Similarly, the food price index as a whole recorded a notable decline of nearly 12%, from 140.6 points to 122.3 points, over the same period, largely attributable to the Black Sea Grains Agreement.
The Kremlin’s change in tone regarding the grain deal likely reflects the evolution of the war.
In an obvious attempt to use any means necessary to pursue its goals, Russia appears to be weaponizing hunger, a historically effective tactic for inflicting suffering on populations.
The world has witnessed the dark side of food geopolitics throughout history, and sadly, it seems like it could repeat itself.
Termination of the Black Sea Grains Agreement would threaten global food security and stability. The international community must mobilize and come together to extend the agreement in order to avoid disastrous consequences. This situation is a stark reminder of Russia’s significant influence and power in setting the global food security agenda. Such challenges must be recognized and addressed to counter the potential evil that exists on Earth. As the world grapples with these issues, the importance of ensuring food security for all nations becomes ever more evident.