The government’s latest French growth forecast is 1.4% for 2023, but it could be revised soon.
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How severe will the economic crisis be? The Governor of the Banque de France affirmed on Friday September 9 not to exclude a “limited recession” in France and in Europe in 2023, in a context where most forecasters predict a simple slowdown in activity.
“The European and French economies will face a significant slowdown next year, and we cannot rule out a limited recession”said François Villeroy de Galhau in a speech delivered at an event organized in Prague by the European think tank Eurofi.
If the French economy were to contract in 2023, a possible recession would not have “nothing to see” with the historic decline in French GDP in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Banque de France told AFP. The recession would also be “limited in time”says the same source.
The governor’s remarks are nonetheless a warning, two days after INSEE published its last economic report in which the institute forecasts a slowdown in growth in the third quarter (0.2%) before stagnation of GDP in the last three months of the year.
The government’s latest growth forecast is 1.4% for 2023, but it could be revised downwards in the coming days, on the occasion of the presentation of the finance bill for 2023 and the budgetary trajectory of the government until the end of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term.