the government will launch a consultation on global warming with a scenario of +4°C in 2100

The government will launch a consultation on Tuesday May 23 to define what scenario France must prepare for in terms of global warming, with in particular the hypothesis of a warming of the country by +4°C at the end of the century, franceinfo learned with the Ministry of Ecological Transition on Sunday May 21.

>> Drought: can the lack of water put France out of power?

“It is proposed that the reference warming trajectory for the adaptation of France be based on the more pessimistic hypothesis”is it written in the document of the ministry presenting this consultation, to which franceinfo had access. “It would thus be a question of gradually adapting to a level of warming in metropolitan France of 2°C in 2030, 2.7°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100”.

“We are collectively not on the right trajectory” in order to respect the objective of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, continues the Ministry of Ecological Transition in its document. “We cannot therefore ignore the current trend in global greenhouse gas emissions: the hypothesis of global warming of more than 2°C by the end of the century cannot be excluded, even if the achievement objectives of the Paris Agreement remains our priority and our fight”.

Droughts quadrupled

The document that will be submitted for consultation proposes two hypotheses. A first scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement where global warming would be limited to +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era and which leads to an increase of 2°C on average in mainland France. And a second scenario with a global warming of 3°C, which generates an average increase in mercury of 4°C in the country.

In this second hypothesis, the impacts will worsen sharply in metropolitan France, specifies the document of the ministry. First of all, the droughts will be multiplied by four, whereas they are multiplied by two today. The reduction in snow cover will be at least three times greater. Heat waves may last for a month or two in the summer and the extent of the fires will be amplified. “It’s about answering the question: what level of protection do we want to achieve?”explains the consultation document.

The government’s objective is to harmonize the policies for adapting to this change, with the most pessimistic scenario possible, so that they are coherent. This concerns in particular public infrastructures, water networks which will have to drain larger quantities. This also concerns the roads that must be protected at all costs to allow relief to pass.