Five months after presenting its sobriety plan, the government believes it is on the right track. But the players in the sector recognize it: the hardest part remains to be done.
France has been “resilient”, according to the expression used yesterday by RTE, the manager of the electricity transmission network, which warns all the same: 2022 was one of the worst years in terms of electricity production, down by 15%. We are at the lowest for 30 years with a very poor record on nuclear as on hydraulics.
The good news is that consumption has also fallen by 10% for households, businesses and even administrations. At the top of the state, the general feeling is that the worst has been avoided. The question that agitates the government is the sustainability of this decline. This winter, despite the disaster scenarios, our system held up. The sobriety that has been touted for several months still meets this dual objective: reducing the bill and relieving our network.
But as a member of the Energy Regulation Commission points out, “All it would take is a cold snap of two weeks and two reactors undergoing maintenance, and we would be under pressure again”. If we summarize: it holds but it remains fragile.
In this context, the government will still ask for efforts from the French. This is the meaning of the story. Remember that France has set a target of reducing energy consumption by 40% by 2050. And there clearly, we are getting into the hard part…
“We just eliminated the waste”
A 10% drop is fine, but those are probably the easiest percentages. “We just eliminated the waste”, deciphers an adviser. In the coming months, the government should therefore return to the charge. If you liked being called to be reasonable on heating this winter, you’ll love the messages to limit the air conditioning next summer…
If our network holds, is sobriety still necessary? Yes, because the fundamental problem is not settled. Next winter, some reactors will again be under maintenance and for the time being, our gas reserves are not completely secure. The debate on possible cuts is likely to return very quickly. Especially since for the time being, we are only talking about gas or electricity. If we want to push the debate a little further, if we want to reduce our energy consumption and our carbon impact, we will have to touch on gasoline and transport. And there, politically, it is something else.
Even environmentalists do not really promote higher prices to reduce the use of fossil fuels. So after a difficult pension reform, there is little chance that the government will come up against it. When we talk about energy, the specter of “Yellow Vests” is never far away.