“It’s a bit as if the Ukrainian government took note of the fact that Donbass was going to become a gigantic battlefield”, estimates the geopolitician, researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute and teacher at Sciences Po Cyrille Bret this Sunday on franceinfo. On Saturday July 31, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the evacuation of all civilian populations from the Donetsk region, where Russian strikes are intensifying day by day.
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franceinfo: Is this the first time that such an appeal has been made by President Zelensky?
Cyrille Bret: In any case, this call comes at a critical time, for the Donetsk region in particular and Donbass as a whole. This suggests an anticipation by the Ukrainian government of a resurgence of bombardments and battles for the cities. The first objective of this declaration is to minimize civilian casualties on the Ukrainian side, and the second is to point out, in the middle of summer and what can sometimes be a torpor of public opinion, that the populations Ukrainian civilians continue to suffer directly in Ukraine and in particular in the Don basin.
It’s a mandatory evacuation, that’s what President Zelensky says. Does this mean that Ukraine is abandoning this region of Donbass?
In a post-Soviet and Ukrainian context, it is rather the desire to spare civilian populations. They have been hit hard and one doubts the determination of the Russian armed forces to respect them. This also means that the Ukrainian government now considers this Donbass basin, with 6 million inhabitants before the start of the war, gigantic resources, particularly in mining, as the main stake in this battle which, I believe, will last several months.
“Ukraine is preparing for a militarization of its action in the Donbass. It’s a bit as if the Ukrainian government took note of the fact that this Don basin was going to become a gigantic battlefield.”
Cyrille Bretat franceinfo
Before the start of the war, it was the most populated region in Ukraine after kyiv, and there are obviously still civilian populations to protect. Ukraine does not renounce this territory. On the contrary, it is preparing for military action of even greater intensity. Hence the need to evacuate the civilians.
At the time when the Ukrainian president made this appeal, the staff of the Russian Black Sea fleet, in Crimea, was attacked by drones. What should we understand?
We must see the symbolic significance of this attack over time. It’s Fleet Day in Russia, with commemorations that we don’t necessarily know about. But it’s a bit like a July 14th of the Fleet which gives rise to large and large naval parades, especially in the major naval capitals of Russia such as Saint Petersburg.
And it is also a symbolic attack in space: it is a question of striking Russia beyond the lines, in the region of Crimea, this peninsula in the south of Ukrainian territory which has been annexed by Russia since now several years. For the Ukrainian authorities, this is a way of showing that they have not given up on reconquering Crimea. For several months, voices have been raised for Ukraine to negotiate peace against the abandonment of territories.
“The message from the Ukrainian authorities is extremely clear: it is not giving up on Crimea since it is carrying symbolic fire right up to the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.”
Cyrille Bretat franceinfo