Faced with soaring electricity prices, the executive is preparing new measures, announced this weekend Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy. What are the possible arrangements? The decryption of Fanny Guinochet.
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For now, the government refuses to give details on electricity prices but this should concern a further reduction in taxes. Because one thing is certain: in the middle of the presidential campaign, the executive absolutely wants to keep the commitment made by Jean Castex to cap the increase in electricity prices by 4% next February. But the problem is that when the Prime Minister made this promise at the end of September, regulated electricity tariffs were to increase by up to 12% next year, that was the forecast of the experts. However, last week, these same experts reviewed their copy and now estimate that prices may increase in a much higher proportion rather between 20 and 25%. This means that to keep its commitment, the government will have to compensate much more, by lowering taxes on electricity much more than expected.
This energy inflation will be costly for the state budget because today, just for the shield on electricity, the government has budgeted nearly six billion euros in spending in the finance bill. Suddenly, it will be more. Bruno Le Maire thus estimated Sunday, December 5 that if the increase in tariffs reached 20%, the State would have to pay eight billion euros. And again, this is the low range. Some experts speak of ten or even twelve billion euros in compensation.
For now, it is not expected that thehe government distributes new energy checks to the French. Sespecially that he will pay this end of the year, and early next year, the exceptional inflation allowance of 100 euros to French people who earn less than 2,000 euros. This will cost 3.8 billion euros to the budget, if we add the expenditure to compensate for the rise in the price of gas, the tariff shield as for the electricity. We must not forget either the traditional energy check for the most modest. Bercy estimates that it has already planned more than 12 billion euros to prevent the French from taking the full brunt of the increase in energy prices. 12 billion euros is more than the 2022 budgets for justice and agriculture combined.