Will there be a majority to vote for the pension reform or will it have to be forced through? This is the main concern of the executive. Behind the scenes, the voices are counted.
“It’s going to be played with four or five votes and it’s very dangerous” : warning from an important macronist executive. We often forget that politics is also arithmetic. On March 26 at the latest, the pension bill will come back to the two Assemblies for a solemn vote. Every vote will count. Because with around 250 deputies, the macronie needs reinforcements.
In the Assembly, the majority is 289 votes but this threshold can be reduced if there are absences and especially abstentions. Within the executive, it is therefore considered that 35 to 40 right-wing votes are needed for this to pass, but this figure is far from certain. So the macronie counts, recounts and recounts again.
We count at the presidency of the Assembly, at the Elysée, at Matignon, at the Ministry of Labour. Everyone keeps tables: who votes for, who hesitates, who can switch, who can influence others, who could abstain… In macronist vocabulary, this is called “reporting”. But an adviser warns: “A painting is good, but the important thing is to move people from one box to another.”
Go to the vote or use 49-3?
It is therefore necessary to convince and there, an excel table is no longer useful. When an elected official is perceived as hesitant, the advisers activate themselves. At the Ministry of Relations with Parliament alone, there are twelve! Discreet meetings, text messages, phone calls… Active lobbying also led by ministers Dussopt and Riester, fine connoisseurs of parliament. The rule is the secret of the negotiations but in the end, these data go back to Matignon where strategists are supposed to take control. Which proposals to keep? What should you let go of? What would get votes?
It’s still too early to tell if it works. Of the 61 LR deputies, there would be a dozen rather against. About twenty would hesitate but could they abstain or finally vote for? “It changes every day”recognizes an elected official.
On the right also, we hold paintings. A new count is scheduled for next Tuesday before the Joint Joint Commission. “The executive will not risk a vote if they are not sure”warns a Les Républicains executive.
Because to return to the original question: will there be a majority or will it be necessary to force through with a 49-3? The answer may be in one of these tables. So the macronie counts and counts and counts again…