Global growth should experience a slight improvement this year, compared to 2023, but remain at historically low levels, estimated Monday the World Bank (WB), which does not expect an acceleration in the global economy in the coming years. years.
According to the Washington-based institution’s semi-annual report, growth for 2024 is expected to reach 2.6%, in line with growth achieved last year, 0.2 percentage points better than its first forecast, published early of year.
But it is not expected to do much better in the years to come, since the WB anticipates it at 2.6% or 2.7% for 2025 and 2026.
A significantly weaker trend than that observed in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, during which the global economy grew on average by 3.1% per year, a difference of 0.5 percentage points.
“A large part is due to the unexpected strength of the American economy, which helps support global growth,” underlined the Bank’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, during an online press conference.
But this trend hides the fact that “the poorest countries are not doing well, both in terms of growth, debt and success, particularly due to a complex commercial environment,” he added.
And which confirms that of previous years, with a consequence: in 2024, almost a quarter of developing countries will still not have seen their economy return to the level known before the pandemic, underlines the World Bank report.
The consequence is that, for half of developing countries, the wealth gap with advanced economies will only widen, despite the weak growth experienced by the European Union or Japan.
Among the causes, a slowdown in the growth of world trade, which while “should improve by the end of the year,” should tend to experience “the half-decade with the weakest growth since 1990” , added Mr. Gill.
In detail, advanced economies should see their growth accelerate compared to 2023, particularly in the euro zone and Japan, but at a still low rate, both at 0.7%.
The United States, on the other hand, should experience growth in line with that achieved in 2023, of 2.5%, but slow down in the medium term, while the euro zone should improve.
Among emerging countries, China is moving towards a slowdown in its economy, which is expected to grow by 4.8% this year (compared to 5% in 2023) but will only grow by 4% in 2026.
Conversely, India is expected to see strong and persistent growth of between 6.6% and 6.8% over the next three years.