International delegations converge in Glasgow to follow up on the Paris Agreement. It is very likely that this is still a climatic meeting of blah-blah-blah, as Greta Thunberg recently denounced. Already, the Paris Agreement was not reassuring for climate strikers. Look for the words “coal”, “oil” and “natural gas” in the 28 pages of the agreement, you will not find them… And yet, they are responsible for 80% of the emissions accumulated since the industrial age. Why do we refuse to recognize the elephant in the room? As we explain in our book For an ecology of 99%, the climate fight is a power struggle against an economic caste that has control over the future of the majority: the fossil industry. COP26 risks giving birth to a mouse for this reason: no serious force is yet ready to face this titan. Yet this is what we need to do.
One of the main measures that will be discussed at COP26 is the same as provided for in the Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997: the exchange of carbon credits through a global market. It could take several years, if only to put in place the mechanisms of this market: those precious years that we do not have. For climate justice, winning slowly is losing definitely.
But even more, this is a very ineffective measure to quickly reduce emissions: in Europe, this market would have reduced emissions from 0 to 1.5%, rather than the 11% needed to assume the debt. climate in these rich countries. The carbon market today serves above all for the countries of the South to offset the emissions of the rich polluters of the North. This market is also blind to the nature of emission reductions: a power plant can obtain credits and make money by remaining in fossil fuels, by switching from coal to natural gas for example. In addition, like any capitalist market, the carbon market is subject to manipulation by the most powerful actors and reproduces a simplistic and abstract understanding of nature.
Why do we persist in error? Because it is the path favored by the most powerful and interested players: the coal, oil and gas companies. After all, they have no interest in quickly shutting down their infrastructure or leaving their reserves underground without being able to realize the profit they represent. The duty recently quoted Henry Shaw, an Exxon official, who back in 1980 said, “We are not going to stop burning fossil fuels overnight, and suddenly turn to solar or nuclear fusion and so on.” We are going to make a very reasonable and gradual transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies. Forty years later, it is clear that this transition has never taken place. Now we are up against the wall.
For a treaty on the non-proliferation of fossil fuels
We no longer have the time to gamble on our future at the carbon casino. The most urgent measure must target the weapons of mass destruction represented by the hydrocarbon reserves: the fossil industry must be gradually closed, ensuring a transition for workers in the sector. Without a 6% reduction per year in hydrocarbon production, it will be impossible for us to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. If international bodies like the COP can play a role, it should be to put in place concrete measures, first and foremost coordinated and fair planning for the phase-out of fossil fuels. After having established carbon budgets adjusted according to the historical responsibility of the countries and a redistribution of wealth for the benefit of the countries most heavily affected by the crisis, we must build on the idea of a fuel non-proliferation treaty. fossils. The countries have already managed to agree to limit their nuclear power, but this requires mutual commitments, a de-escalation plan and binding measures.
For now, as long as the main measure discussed is the carbon market, we can be sure that we are heading towards dangerous global warming. Until governments commit to shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the climate justice movement must rely on its mobilizing force to break social dependence on fossil fuels.
For this, we need to build a 99% ecology which multiplies climate strikes and which succeeds in rallying outside schools and universities. Faced with the fossil fuel industry, solidarity and democracy will be our best weapons. Faced with climatic disasters, they will also be our best shields.