It’s time for recovery for aeronautics. The first Paris Air Show since the Covid opens its doors on Monday June 19. This edition will be marked by the restarting of the aviation sector, but also by concern about the climate challenge.
This year, airlines expect to carry 4.3 billion passengers. Very close to the 2019 level, which was 4.5 billion. After the Covid, the sector seemed knocked out and very few were those who hoped for a timid recovery before 2025 or 2026.
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However, the 2023 show is buzzing with rumors of mega orders for manufacturers, more than 2,000 say the specialists. We have already seen those of Air India (470 planes), that of Saudia, or even that of Turkish Airlines which was finally delayed. 600 planes is a historic record shared between Airbus and Boeing. On the other hand, if you order a transport plane today, you will have to be patient: you will have to wait about ten years to get it!
The decarbonization of aviation in question
While some airlines do not seem to be asking the question, others are seeking to activate all the levers to decarbonize and be able to continue to develop, as Antoine Laborde, Director of Fuel Purchasing at Air France explains: “The first is the fairly classic lever, to renew the fleets. A new next-generation aircraft consumes 20 to 25% less fuel. The second lever is what we call ‘operational measures’. For example, driving with a single engine or having more direct trajectories to optimize the use of our aircraft. And the third lever, which is finally a fairly new lever and which is not activated yet, is the use of sustainable aviation fuel”.
This third lever could make it possible to reduce CO2 emissions from aircraft by 80%, but only under certain conditions: sustainable fuel must be produced from waste and not from dedicated crops. Then there must be enough. There are 250,000 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuels produced today compared to 300 million tonnes of kerosene. At best, there is currently 1% of biofuel on board planes while the European Union wants 70% in 2050. The problem is that the raw materials needed, such as green waste or used cooking oil, risk lack to meet the needs.
1% of the world’s population is responsible for 50% of air emissions
The aviation sector did not wait for the emergence of the climate crisis to reduce its carbon footprint. Since 1960, CO2 emissions per passenger have been divided by five thanks to more efficient technologies. The problem is that the number of passengers has been multiplied by forty-five!
Olivier Del Bucchia, president of the Aéro décarbo association and co-author of the “Be able to fly in 2050” report, underlines the importance of raising awareness: “Air emissions have increased significantly since 1960 because traffic has increased. Certainly the technology, the fuels, the biofuels, the hydrogen, it’s all part of the equation.”
“The problem is that if we think the technological levers are sufficient, we are taking a huge risk. We must bear in mind that decarbonization by the technological base consumes a lot of energy. All of this has consequences”.
Olivier Del Bucchiaat franceinfo
Anyway, there is urgency, says Daniel Iracane, of the Academy of Technologies. “We will have to go very quickly. We could and should have started before. It has not been done enough. The major challenge is to start the production of decarbonization tools. Knowing to what level we can develop them will ultimately determine whether we can fly as much, fly more or fly less tomorrow”.
Associations, NGOs, and even some major players in the sector, such as Aéroports de Paris, plead for more or less severe sobriety. It will be more difficult for some than for others. According to a Swedish university, 1% of the world’s population is responsible for 50% of airborne emissions. In the meantime, this year at the Paris Air Show, aircraft manufacturers will no doubt prefer to communicate about their orders.