For François Legault, the new year is off to a bad start. Beginning last spring, the Coalition Avenir Québec’s fall in voting intentions would become more pronounced.
At least according to a Pallas Data/Qc125/L’nouvelles survey published Monday. At 32% in Quebec and 37% among French speakers, the Parti Québécois of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon would even be in majority territory.
At 21% in Quebec, including only 24% of the French-speaking vote, the CAQ would move dangerously away from its 41% collected in the 2022 elections. As for the other opposition parties, they are competing for the remaining crumbs.
According to the pollster, this would even be the CAQ’s worst score since 2016. Be careful, however, until the next Léger poll.
Because if it is clear that the CAQ is not on the rise, it will nevertheless remain to be seen whether or not the PQ’s lead would be as spectacular as the 11 points given here by Pallas Data.
The only certainty is that, since last year, PSPP and the PQ mini caucus of four elected officials following the Jean-Talon by-election, have been able to bring about a miraculous resurrection of a party yet destined for certain death.
For François Legault who, despite the decline of his party and his almost six years in power, tries to present his formation as the “team of change”, the message from voters is quite different.
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The change team?
For the moment, according to more and more voters, the team for change would rather be that of the PQ. As small as it is. This is why the fight between the CAQ and the PQ, ironically Mr. Legault’s former party, promises to be fierce.
We have already analyzed the PSPP “recipe” a lot. A calm tone. Imaginative communication. An assumed combination of the sovereignist option and the preparation of concrete ideas for public policies. Unheard of at the PQ since Jacques Parizeau.
We also analyzed a lot the errors of the CAQ and its leader in 2023. Word betrayed on the third link. Increase in the salaries of deputies in the midst of inflation. The millions to the Kings. His long denial of the housing crisis. Etc.
But above all, according to the Léger/The newspaper end of the year, the growing impatience of Quebecers with constantly deteriorating public services is no longer forgiving.
Before popping the champagne
Among the PQ troops, before popping the champagne, the main challenge of PSPP promises to be just as heavy to bear. Consolidating and then reinforcing your momentum when sailing in the front row is never an easy task.
In political science, however, a fundamental principle very rarely lies. They say that governments are never elected, they are defeated.
In other words, when disenchantment sets in with a government, the opponent capable of positioning itself as its alternative in the electoral campaign has an excellent chance of replacing it.
Any comparison being lame, let’s remember this one anyway. In 1973, facing the PLQ of Robert Bourassa, the PQ of René Lévesque had only 6 deputies elected.
In 1976, taking advantage of a persistent loss of confidence in the Liberals, this very small caucus, but with an impressive team of candidates, won its first majority victory with 71 seats.
In 2024, two and a half years before the elections, it is far too early to know whether the disenchantment with the CAQ and Mr. Legault will be permanent or not.
However, if it were to be, for the first time since 2012, the PQ would have a chance of regaining power. But that, in terms of political temporality, is the equivalent of several eternities…