The fifth wave worse in Quebec than elsewhere?

Is the fifth wave of COVID-19 worse in Quebec than elsewhere? Yes, it’s worse than Ontario and the UK. Mainly because we have fewer hospital beds. And the rate of deaths linked to COVID-19 is higher in the last week in Quebec than in the United States. Analysis of the situation in four points.

Posted at 12:00 a.m.

Vincent Brousseau-Pouliot

Vincent Brousseau-Pouliot
The Press

1. The highest death rate for seven days

Over the past 7 days, Quebec has the highest death rate among 15 countries listed by the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) and among Canadian provinces. Since Monday, it has been ahead of the United States.


The Dr Luc Boileau, national director of public health for Quebec, however, recalled in a press briefing on Tuesday that “comparisons between the provinces do not really hold” for deaths, because Quebec “has more than anywhere else in Canada” its related deaths to COVID-19. The Dr Boileau cited a report by the Royal Society of Canada published in June 2021. This report concluded that the data on deaths related to COVID-19 in 2020 were more faithful to reality in Quebec than elsewhere in Canada (the report analyzed excess mortality in 2020, which can be logically associated with COVID-19).

2. Things are worse than in Ontario

All things considered, there are currently more COVID patients in hospitals in Quebec than in Ontario.

As of Wednesday, there were 395 COVID patients in hospital per million Quebecers, compared to 272 per million Ontarians. Both provinces use much the same method to count COVID patients. In both provinces, approximately 50% of COVID patients in regular beds and 18% of intensive care patients are patients who are not in hospital due to COVID but have tested positive for COVID- 19.

On the other hand, intensive care units have more COVID patients in Ontario: 40 per million people, compared to a ratio of 33 in Quebec.


In terms of vaccination, Ontario started offering the third dose earlier than Quebec. Result: at the start of Thursday, 38% of Ontarians were triple vaccinated, compared to 34% of Quebecers.

Ontario is a good point of comparison for Quebec: the two provinces started dealing with Omicron at about the same time and the peak of wave five hospitalizations has not been reached (however, Ontario has observed a first day of slight decrease in hospitalizations on Tuesday, and Quebec on Wednesday).

Elsewhere in Canada, British Columbia and Alberta have much lower hospitalization rates, but it would be unfair to compare these two provinces with Ontario and Quebec at this time, as Omicron arrived later in The west of the country.

3. Things are worse than in the UK

The United Kingdom started to experience the fifth wave with Omicron a little before Quebec. Sanitary measures were less severe there. But the ratio of hospitalizations in the United Kingdom currently remains lower than in Quebec. And hospital capacity is greater in the UK.


For the past few days, the United Kingdom has hoped to have reached its peak in hospitalizations. On January 10, there were 19,918 COVID patients in UK hospitals. On January 19 (Wednesday), there were 18,494, down 1,424. “We are particularly following” the situation in the United Kingdom, says the Dr Luc Boileau, acting national director of public health for Quebec, at a press briefing on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the UK had experienced a much larger crisis in its hospitals during the second wave, in January 2021. The UK had reached a ratio of up to 585 COVID patients hospitalized per million people. COVID patients then occupied up to 24% of hospital beds.

4. It’s pretty much like the US

As a proportion of population, there are many more COVID patients in the United States. But the country of President Joe Biden also has many more hospital beds to treat them. However, the American health system is very unequal – unlike that of Quebec, where health care is universal and free.

According to our calculations, COVID patients occupy 17% of hospital beds in the United States, compared to 21% in Quebec. In the state of New York, neighboring Quebec, the situation is more critical: 23% of hospital beds in New York State are occupied by COVID patients.

However, the situation is much more critical in intensive care in the United States, where there is a ratio of 79 COVID patients in intensive care per million people, compared to a ratio of 33 in Quebec.


Compared to Quebecers, Americans are less vaccinated and have adopted fewer sanitary measures.

US$5370 per Canadian

Among the G7 countries, Canada ranks fourth in terms of spending on its health care system. Canada spends US$5,370 per person per year (in 2019), compared to US$10,948 for the United States (2019), US$6,731 for Germany (2020), US$5,564 for France (2020), US$5268 for the UK (2020), US$4691 for Japan (2019) and US$3819 for Italy (2020), according to OECD data.


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