Any good strategy, on paper, often ends up colliding with the vagaries of politics. Or with its inevitability.
By chaining together dozens of calls and regional meetings with his elected officials throughout the summer, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoped to appease the discontent of his troops in order to find them in Liberal caucus this week all united (or almost) and ready to face the next pre-election year. A wave of departures unfortunately rumored almost all at the same time has however come to revive their concern and impatience. And cement this nascent impression of a beginning of the end of the Liberal reign.
While Justin Trudeau listened to the grievances of his elected officials, they had their fill of their own in the last two months, hearing the many grievances of their constituents. For the most part, their findings echoed those of the polls, according to Montreal-area MP Alexandra Mendès, the second Liberal elected official to now openly discuss the prime minister’s departure.
Known for her outspokenness, Mme Mendes took this warning shot to her constituents against her leader. But the veteran MP, who temporarily lost her seat in the Liberal carnage of the 2011 election, was not obliged to share her conclusion publicly, knowing full well that it would add to the call first made by her colleague Wayne Long of Newfoundland and Labrador. The Liberal caucus meeting was derailed before it even began.
These disavowals by the Prime Minister, in public or in private, remain the business of a minority within his caucus. However, it is a safe bet that the Liberals, who all have, like Mr.me Mendes, who crisscrossed their riding meeting voters this summer, did not arrive on Vancouver Island for the Liberal meeting with much more enthusiasm.
Trailing in the polls for a year, still dazed by the thaw they suffered in Toronto-St. Paul’s in June, the Liberals have been calling for a change of direction for months. The status quo favored by Justin Trudeau is no longer acceptable.
And now, to the exasperation of Liberal voters, we have added the defection of a few allies. Departures that, in isolation, are not unusual at the end of a third term. But taken together in such a short time, they hardly give the impression of anything other than a ship that is starting to take on water.
That of the Liberal campaign director, Jeremy Broadhurst, has shaken internally. The reasons for the departure of this strategist who has been devoted to the party for over 20 years, even under the leadership of Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, are not a consensus. But whether he gave up his place because he no longer had the sacred fire or whether he was thanked by the higher authorities because he lacked determination, the little hope of securing a Liberal victory in the next election speaks volumes.
A turnover among political staffers is nothing abnormal either, but the fact that five chiefs of staff are leaving in quick succession is still nothing comforting for the Liberals. No more than the sudden departure of Minister Seamus O’Regan this summer for family reasons, or the expected departure of the minister and Quebec lieutenant of the Premier, Pablo Rodriguez, to run for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party.
In the months leading up to the end of its own regime, Stephen Harper’s Conservative government had lost two ministers (John Baird and Peter MacKay), while four others had announced their intention not to run again. As determined as Justin Trudeau is to take on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, his troops seem less convinced that they still have many good years left.
The Prime Minister has not said his last word, however. By recruiting Mark Carney as an economic advisor to develop the Liberal election platform, Justin Trudeau is shuffling a few cards at once. He is defusing any potential squabbling by the former governor of the Bank of Canada, he is opposing a recognized economic guarantee to the fulminations of Pierre Poilievre and he is suggesting a necessary refocusing of public spending (albeit limited by the recurring financing of new social programs).
The challenge of embodying renewal is nevertheless considerable for a team that has been in place for nine years. The simple recruitment of Mr. Carney, who risks making the real leap by the next election, or a facade realignment will not be enough to break decades of political cycle. The Prime Minister is at least finally beginning to refocus. It remains to be seen whether he will offer too little, too late.
History will remember Justin Trudeau as the Liberal leader who pulled his party out of the political abyss. But if nothing changes, he could leave his party in the same state in turn. The next test will fall on Monday, in the riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.