After a trip to Romania on Wednesday June 15 in the morning, Emmanuel Macron went to Moldova in the afternoon. On the spot, the President of the Republic pleaded for the countries of the European Union to send a “positive and clear signal” to Moldova’s application for membership of the European Union, a country neighboring Ukraine, where the feeling of a Russian threat is growing as the conflict progresses.
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“The Main Fear”explains on franceinfo Vincent Henry, specialist in Moldova and researcher at the LIPHA laboratory at the University of Paris Est Créteil, “it’s a destabilization in Transnistria, a separatist region supported by Moscow”.
Is this small country a potential target of the Russian offensive?
This is the question that has been asked since the beginning of the conflict. Moldova is not directly threatened by Russian military operations. Nevertheless, this fear exists for obvious historical and political reasons. Moldova is not in the same situation as the Baltic countries: it is not a member of the European Union, not a member of NATO, and even in a neutrality forced by the conflict with Transnistria in the early years 90. This is, moreover, the main fear, a possible destabilization of this separatist region, supported by Moscow and where Russia maintains troops and a large arms depot.
What is the status of Transnistria and its relationship with Russia?
It is in a form of legal ambiguity. Officially, Transnistria falls under Moldova, because it is not recognized by anyone, not even by Moscow. Even if it declared its independence, it therefore only exists as a tool of pressure on Moldovan politics. But there are Russian forces there, about 1,500 men. As for the local forces, today they are not positioning themselves and that is a fairly reassuring point.
“The Transnistrian authorities obviously do not want to be involved in a conflict where they would have everything to lose. Moldova’s main vulnerability today is economic and social. It is a country that is entirely dependent on Russian energy. , gas and electricity.
Vincent Henryat franceinfo
To what extent is Moldova already suffering economically from this conflict?
The Moldovan border is 60 kilometers from the port of Odessa in Ukraine, and its access to this Black Sea seaport is already blocked, as are its trade with Russia and Ukraine. No more import or export is possible by sea. And the effect of this disruption of these commercial exchanges is already very visible since inflation has climbed by almost 30%. Hence the need for the Moldovan authorities to offer the population a clear European perspective. This is the whole point of Emmanuel Macron’s visit.