(Brussels) The triumph of the far right in the Dutch elections has caused a shock wave in Brussels, less than seven months before the European elections which could be marked by a new surge in Eurosceptic forces.
In the eyes of pro-European groups, the leader of the Freedom Party (PVV) Geert Wilders, close to the Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen, also praised for his victory by the Hungarian Viktor Orban, looks like a scarecrow.
He denounces the “diktats” of the European Union and promised during his campaign a referendum on “Nexit”, a potential exit of the Netherlands from the EU. Not to mention his controversial biases on support for Ukraine or the war in the Middle East.
However, the arrival of Geert Wilders at the table of European leaders as Prime Minister of his country is not for tomorrow, political scientists warn.
“We must distinguish arithmetic (its first place in the elections with 37 seats according to the latest projections, Editor’s note) and what is politically possible,” recalls Benoît Rihoux, professor at the Catholic University of Louvain-la-Neuve, in Belgium. , stressing that he will be forced to compromise to find allies and hope to form a coalition.
“The Netherlands is a founding member of the EU and we continue to count on its full participation in the Union, obviously,” commented Eric Mamer, spokesperson for the European Commission, refusing to comment on election results.
As the European election of June 2024 approaches, this new progression of an anti-immigration Eurosceptic party, in the 7e most populous country in the EU (17 million inhabitants), announces a possible upheaval of the balance in the Strasbourg Parliament.
“We can expect at least a consolidation of right-wing populists or even an increase in their number of seats in the European Parliament,” explains Nathalie Brack, of the Free University of Brussels (ULB), contacted by AFP.
“Can’t wait for June”
Without an elected representative currently, the PVV could make its entry by strengthening the ranks of the Identity & Democracy (ID) group alongside the French National Rally (RN) and the German AfD, both of which are on the rise, according to this political science professor.
“Can’t wait for June 2024! », reacted on the social network
What Nathalie Brack describes above all as “generalized dissatisfaction in certain countries with regard to traditional parties” could also benefit the ECR group in the European Parliament.
Made up of Eurosceptic conservatives from sixteen countries (from Spain with elected officials from Vox or from Poland with those from PiS) this group claims 67 MEPs, ahead of ID (60) and just behind the Greens (72)… Who could well be overtaken in the future composition of the hemicycle.
“There is even a possibility that ECR will become the third group in Parliament, for example, if the liberals are sanctioned,” further indicates the ULB political scientist.
For French elected official Raphaël Glucksmann, likely head of the socialist list in the European election, the EU is “in danger” with the successes garnered by the far right election after election.
“Mr Wilders campaigned not only against Muslims, immigration, but also against the European Green Deal, ecological transition, etc. “, he noted.
A symbolic figure in the European Commission’s battles, architect of its Green Deal, the Dutchman Frans Timmermans lost his bet to bring about the triumph of an eco-socialist team in his country.
Left behind by 12 seats by the PVV in the latest projections, the former vice-president of the European executive will have difficulty doing well in the upcoming negotiations.