The appetite for so-called “temporary” immigrants rather than for so-called “permanent” ones is disrupting the labor market to the point where “it now gives the impression of a loss of control,” according to a study by the Institut du Québec ( IDQ) published Monday.
The explosion in the number of temporary immigrants on Quebec soil is no longer a secret. It increased by 46% last year, for a total of 528,034 people settled in Quebec and more than 2.5 million in Canada. This massive increase is not the result of chance, but of a multiplication of entry routes authorized by governments.
“There are a number of measures to facilitate the arrival of temporary immigrants within well-known programs. But the multiplication of measures was done without taking into account the cumulative impact of these measures,” explains the co-author of the study, Emna Braham, also general director of the IDQ. “Today it gives the impression of loss of control. Except that the levers exist to correct the situation, both in Quebec and in Ottawa. »
Qualified or not, trained here or not, many of these temporary immigrants hope one day to settle for good in Quebec. And since becoming a permanent resident increasingly requires temporary status, “we risk finding ourselves with bottlenecks,” warns Emna Braham.
In 2015, 18% of new permanent residents had previously had temporary status. In 2023, this proportion had increased to 32%.
The short and long term
The consequences of these thousands of “temporary” workers expected to become “permanent” do not seem to have been anticipated by governments, IDQ researchers argue. “ [Les assouplissements administratifs et les modifications réglementaires] seem to have been [décidés] without rigorous planning and a complete analysis of their medium and long-term effects really being carried out. »
Prioritizing foreign labor to ensure its growth also jeopardizes the creation of long-term wealth for Quebec, again according to the study. “Not only could a large supply of temporary foreign workers have a negative influence on the wages of local workers, but also have the effect of slowing down investments in technologies and machinery necessary to improve Quebec’s productivity,” writes the team. of research. Companies seeking lower-cost labor may prioritize meeting immediate demand rather than seeking to increase their long-term competitiveness. »
Build and they will come
Leaving it to businesses to choose immigrants leaves gaping holes in the composition of the workforce, researchers also point out. A large proportion of this immigration (participants in the International Mobility Program, asylum seekers and students) is not modulated according to the needs of employers. And then too few temporary workers occupy jobs in the health and construction sectors, areas which are nevertheless key areas where there are tens of thousands of positions to be filled.
As proof, 15% of permanent immigrants to Quebec worked in the health sector in 2023, compared to 8% of temporary immigrants. In construction, permanent immigrants accounted for 10% of the workforce, compared to only 1% of temporary immigrants.
Another downside: the arrival of these thousands of new workers does not necessarily increase the standard of living of the host society. GDP per capita actually declined last year, although the study does not draw any conclusions for the years to come. “ [I]It is impossible to determine whether the decline in GDP per capita observed in 2023 — which is partly explained by the substantial increase in population — represents a lasting trend. »
This report is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.