It only took a few hours for Ken McDonald to withdraw his comments, but the damage was done. “Every leader, every party has an expiration date. Our expiration date has arrived. » The comments of the Newfoundland Liberal MP, broadcast as part of a Radio-Canada report on the unpopularity of Justin Trudeau in this province formerly won over by his party, have spoiled the image of unity that the first minister wanted to present to the Liberal caucus in Ottawa, on the eve of the resumption of parliamentary work. The eagerness with which most MPs avoided journalists spoke volumes about the unease created by Mr. McDonald.
“The intention behind my recent comments was not to call for a leadership review,” McDonald said after speaking to Liberal Chief Whip Ruby Sahota. Putting the toothpaste back into the tube is always a delicate exercise; Mr. McDonald failed to dispel doubts about his boss.
Alas! The constitution of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC) does not contain any provision allowing one or more MPs to demand a review of the leader’s leadership. It now remains to be seen whether the discontent towards Mr. Trudeau will be able to convince him to hang up his skates in the coming months. That’s not the impression he gave this week when he delivered an election-style speech to his troops. The polls may be unanimous in his favor, but Mr. Trudeau still seems to believe in miracles.
After all, economists expect the Bank of Canada to begin lowering interest rates as early as spring, which would give Canadian consumers breathing space and boost housing construction. The Liberals are also counting on the American election, and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, to remind Canadians that they will have “a similar choice to make” in 2025.
“Are we moving forward to defend democracy, our principles? Are we continuing to fight climate change? Do we defend individual rights? Do we defend minorities? Mr. Trudeau said last week before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal. Or are we going backwards because we are too angry about everything that is happening in the world around us? »
The liberal strategy is banking a lot, if not too much, on a victory for Mr. Trump next November and on unflattering comparisons between the former Republican president and the current Canadian conservative leader. But the Liberals risk finding themselves short of arguments if Joe Biden is re-elected or if Canadians prove insensitive to their fear campaign.
A poll from the Angus Reid firm published this week gives a lead of 17 percentage points to the Conservative Party (PCC) of Pierre Poilievre. At 41% in voting intentions, the PCC hovers far above the PLC, which has fallen to 24%. Additionally, two-thirds of voters who say they intend to vote Liberal would do so primarily to prevent a Conservative victory. “This means that only nine percent of the Canadian electorate is passionate and inspired by the prospect of voting Liberal,” concludes the polling firm. Of course, the Liberals are also counting on the strategic vote of certain NDP voters, who will end up supporting them to block the CCP. Regardless, a Liberal victory in the next election would constitute a historic political achievement. Nothing is impossible in politics. But, after eight years in power, the Liberals and their leader are getting dangerously close to the expiration date.
However, there are many Liberals who believe that Mr. Trudeau remains their best hope to save the furniture in the next election. The experiences of John Turner and Kim Campbell serve as a guide in this regard. In 1984, Mr. Turner became Liberal leader and federal prime minister after the resignation of Pierre Trudeau, before leading the Liberal troops to their worst defeat since Confederation just three months later. The scenario repeated itself in 1993, with even more catastrophic results, when Mr.me Campbell, who replaced Brian Mulroney, only won two seats (out of 295) in the country. Both Trudeau Sr. and Mr. Mulroney were made very unpopular at the time of their resignations. But they would both probably have done better than their replacement had they remained at the head of their respective parties.
In any case, this is the thesis currently circulating within the PLC. Indeed, can we imagine at this stage a rise of the Liberals under Chrystia Freeland, a politician even more divisive than Mr. Trudeau himself? Under Mark Carney, a political neophyte who has never contested an election in his life? Under François-Philippe Champagne, a moderate liberal who arouses little enthusiasm among the left wing of the PLC? Under Mélanie Joly, whose tongue in cheek is unmatched in Ottawa?
Whether at the grocery store or in politics, the expiration date isn’t always an accurate indicator of a product’s freshness, especially when there’s a shortage of options.