Passage in force or consultation? Between these two approaches to achieve reform of the pension system, the executive has decided. Well almost. During a dinner organized Wednesday, September 28 at the Elysée with the main leaders of the majority, Emmanuel Macron finally cut the pear in half.
Consultation on this reform, which all the unions oppose, will begin this fall, with a view to adoption at the beginning of 2023. But the government does not rule out using article 49.3 of the Constitution in case of blocking. The Head of State even brandished the threat of a dissolution of the National Assembly if the oppositions agreed to vote a motion of censure against the government.
A “consultation” to arrive at a bill
Elisabeth Borne affirmed Thursday her intention to open a new round of consultation around the pension reform, with a view to adopting a bill “before the end of winter”. As a goal, “entry into force of the reform in the summer of 2023”she told Agence France-Presse.
It is up to the Minister of Labour, Olivier Dussopt, to “to hire next week [soit la semaine débutant le 3 octobre]“ consultations with employers’ organisations, trade unions, as well as with “parliamentary groups”. On the menu: the legal retirement age (Emmanuel Macron wants to lower it to 65 by 2031), special schemes, the question of long careers or even the thorny issue of hardship.
But these discussions could quickly end. Philippe Martinez, secretary general of the CGT, for example assured that his union would not remain there “not long” if the desire to extend the retirement age is not called into question. “The government does not want to discuss other hypotheses than its own”he castigated Thursday morning on France 2. Similar position for Force Ouvrière, which “go listen to the premiere” consultation meeting then “will advise” follow-up to be given, as declared on franceinfo Thursday by its confederal secretary, Michel Bongas.
The option of an amendment to the social security budget ruled out, unless…
Exit therefore the passage in force via a simple amendment to the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS)? The text must be examined in October in the Assembly, which could suit the schedule of the executive. But this controversial hypothesis, criticized by certain figures of the majority like François Bayrou, was ultimately not accepted by the Head of State.
“At this stage, he clearly discarded the amendment to have sincere consultations on the basis of his proposal for the presidential campaign”, underlines with France Télévisions a participant in the dinner. Another points out that the executive still reserves the right to use it, especially if the unions refuse the consultation announced by Elisabeth Borne.
Classic bill or corrective PLFSS?
It remains to be seen what form the text that will be submitted to Parliament by the government will take. Will it be a classic bill or an amending social security financing bill (PLFSSR)? This question would have no interest in an ordinary political configuration. But it takes on all its importance when a government only has a relative majority in the National Assembly.
The second option would allow the government, in the event of difficulty in having its text adopted by the National Assembly, to use article 49.3 of the Constitution without burning a joker. Indeed, recourse to this article is limited by the Constitution to one text per parliamentary session (in this case, the period extending from October to June), except for budgetary texts, which are bills finance or Social Security financing.
One thing is certain: the government wants to move relatively quickly. “We are not going to spend a year debating this project in the Assembly”, do we decide within the executive.
The threat of a dissolution of the Assembly
In case of use of 49.3, the text presented is considered adopted, unless a motion of censure against the government, tabled within twenty-four hours, is adopted. In this case, the text is rejected, and the government is overthrown.
During the dinner organized Wednesday evening at the Elysée, Emmanuel Macron warned: “Me, I don’t want the shit, if a motion of censure is voted, I dissolve in the minute.” The warning is addressed above all to the LR group in the Assembly, whose votes are essential for the adoption of such a motion of censure.
If Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly, legislative elections would be immediately organized and the 577 deputies would have to put their jobs back into play. What should make some opponents think? In essence, the message is to say to right-wing elected officials: “If you are players, we are players too”, translated for France Télévisions a source within the executive.