We have already seen governments bounce back unexpectedly after a sudden drop in their popularity which predicted a crushing defeat.
Barely two years after his resounding victory in April 2003, Jean Charest seemed to have a very bleak future. The results of the April 2005 Léger poll were as follows: Parti Québécois (PQ), 47%; Democratic Action of Quebec (ADQ), 25%; Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), 21%. Nearly 8 in 10 Quebecers (78%) said they were dissatisfied with their government.
We know the rest: Mr. Charest was entitled to two other mandates, during which the ADQ disappeared and the PQ changed leaders twice before briefly returning to power.
Now that a poll from the firm Pallas Data places the PQ in the lead with 30% of voting intentions, six points ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Prime Minister François Legault will perhaps find the comparison with M .Charest. Who knows, he might even be inspired by it.
After hitting a wall with its state reengineering project, which had provoked an outcry, particularly in the union world, the Charest government backed down and resigned itself to dealing with the inherited “Quebec model”. of the Quiet Revolution, which he said was outdated.
It is true that the PLQ of 2005 was only halfway through its first mandate. The metamorphosis is more difficult for a government entering its sixth year, when the proverbial “desire for change” is just waiting to capture voters. For some time now, the Legault government seems to be doing everything to fuel it.
There are always weak links who have a knack for embarrassing their government. The important thing is that the best elements hold up and preserve the bond of trust with the population.
Since he was appointed Minister of Finance, Eric Girard has been one of these elements. He may have been criticized for his budgetary choices, but we never doubted his competence or his rigor.
Who would have thought him capable of such stupidity? A bad decision that is already shocking in itself becomes even more so when we try to justify it by taking people for suitcases. Paying millions to a billionaire American hockey club while food banks are overwhelmed was already a scandal. Mr. Girard adds an insult to intelligence.
Since there is a one in two chance that the NHL will welcome a new team in the next five years and Quebec is one of the cities in the running, Mr. Girard calculates that his chances are 10%. This assumes that all competitors have the same weight. However, with its approximately 600,000 inhabitants, Quebec faces cities that have 2 to more than 10 times its population: Houston (6.7 million), Atlanta (6.1 million), San Antonio (2.4 million ) and Salt Lake City (1.2 million).
Boston Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs said it bluntly in 2018: “Houston is the 5e largest market in North America, and Quebec is the… 105e, let’s say. Economically and demographically, Quebec simply doesn’t have the numbers. »
In other words, Mr. Girard’s 10% is mush for cats. Quebec is not part of the NHL’s plans, period. He received the mandate to try to repatriate the Nordics, but that does not authorize him to do and say anything.
Although he takes all the responsibility, it is difficult to believe that he acted without the knowledge of the Prime Minister, who presumably gave his approval. We had noted that Mr. Legault had lost his senses for some time, but the problem seems even more serious than we thought.
The situation is reminiscent of the statement made by Philippe Couillard during the 2018 campaign, when he maintained that a family composed of an adult and two adolescents could feed themselves with $75 per week. Although he had explained the various ways of preparing a roast pork to get the most out of it, we saw it as an illustration of his disconnection from the daily reality of the average voter.
The CAQ backbenchers who denounced the subsidy intended for the arrival of the Los Angeles Kings are not recognized as rebels. If Mr. Legault has lost contact with the grassroots, they themselves have understood the message of their constituents very well. The downward trend in voting intentions for the CAQ had been evident since the spring, but this blunder was the straw that broke the cup.
“It had to happen one day,” declared, fatalistically, the MP for Vanier-Les Rivières, Mario Asselin. No doubt, but not so soon, nor so quickly. Barely two months ago, Mr. Legault planned to seek a third term. “For now, my decision is made,” he said. We are now used to seeing him change his mind, and he gives more and more the impression of a man who is on his journey. Unless the example of Jean Charest…